Facts like this are what elections are won and lost on. Writing in National Journal, Ron Brownstein observes, “If the economy produces jobs over the next eight months at the same pace as it did over the past four months, the nation will have created more jobs in 2010 alone than it did over the entire eight years of George W. Bush’s presidency.”

There’s a lot riding on the “if” in Brownstein’s sentence, but as he goes on to write it’s actually a reasonably likely scenario that the economy will continue to produce jobs at the current rate. That doesn’t mean the unemployment rate will be at low levels by Election Day, or that the economy will have recovered. But from a political point of view, the perception that things are getting better can be more important to voters than whether things are good yet. And for Republicans that might make all the difference between a healthy gain of something like 20 seats in the House and a blowout win that gives them back the majority.

Prolific neoconservative agitator Daniel Pipes has a new issue. Why are so many Muslim women winning beauty pageants?

Pipes, on the basis of seemingly no evidence at all, thinks this is an example of some sort of perverse affirmative action. But what strikes me as really odd about this is that what usually gets folks like Pipes most up in arms is the hijab — as a symbol of female subordination and anti-modernism, a point that has a lot to say for it. But most of these women Pipes now has a separate beef with are — like most beauty pageant winners — spending a decent amount of their time waltzing around with almost their whole bodies exposed (i.e., in bikinis). So the whole thing leaves me a bit confused. Strikes me as an example of rather successful Westernization.

TPM Reader MM says it’s a crisis of legitimacy, a deep doubt in our core political institutions. I’ve tended to flip by the emails that say that all the pols are corrupt and govern by a system of institutionalized bribery and so forth. Not that that’s wrong necessarily. But what’s different about this election cycle. And most of these ‘we just want to throw the bums out’ emails don’t provide a satisfying explanation of why now. MM points to the pervasive after effects of the financial bailouts. Read More

With people already starting to write (rightly or wrongly) Arlen Specter’s political epitaph, Christina Bellantoni looks at when the bigwigs realized Specter might be toast.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and birther queen Orly Taitz:

Justin Elliott explains how they came together without the universe exploding.

The Interior Department official who oversees offshore oil and gas drilling for the Minerals Management Service will retire May 31, the Washington Post reports.

Majority Leader Harry Reid is expected to file cloture tonight on financial reform setting up a Wednesday vote on whether to end debate on the bill and bring it to a final vote. The final vote could come as early as Thursday.

As Meg Whitman’s governor’s campaign starts to stall, her main opponent, Steve Poizner launches a new attack on Whitman as a big-time porn-meister.

Okay, totally unscientific, to put it mildly. But who are you rooting for in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania senate primary?

I don’t feel like I personally have a horse in the race one way or another. And I know some people will get on my case for this. But I’ll feel pretty bad for Specter if he goes down tomorrow night. Not that I’m for him per se. I like Sestak too. And God knows, Arlen’s pulled all sorts of crap over the years. But I try to be very honest with you at all times. And honestly, I’m feeling bad for him already.

Rep. Joe Sestak is closing out his campaign citing the example of Scott Brown’s upset win in Massachusetts as a model for his campaign.

“Massachusetts said it best, ‘A pox on both your houses.’ They voted for change in politics,” he told our Christina Bellantoni earlier this evening.

Meanwhile President Obama is hitting the phone lines with robocalls for Specter and Lincoln.