Steve Clemons: Yes, there are debates within political Islam.

I did not know anything about this until last night. But today’s election in California could end up changing the state’s congressional politics in a big way. On the ballot is a referendum which would scrap partisan primaries in the state and replace them with blanket, top two primaries that would tremendously weaken parties and presumably help more middle-of-the-road candidates.

Let’s hear some predictions on what happens tonight.

Halter v. Lincoln? Does Angle really take this thing in Nevada and make Harry Reid’s decade? Does California become a TechCEOcracy? Let’s discuss.

BP’s guide for flacks during oil spills: Do not make “promises that property, ecology, or anything else will be restored to normal.”

TPM Reader KB asks who Dems should be rooting for tonight.

Idea for post: what outcomes should Dems be rooting for tonight? There are multiple angles that could be good news all of which will be lost on the Morning Joe crew tomorrow – so help us out.

Some things I’m pretty sure I have good judgment on. And this isn’t really one of them. But here are a few thoughts. And I’d like to hear yours. Read More

The first polls close at 7 p.m. ET. You can follow all the night’s results on the TPM Election Scoreboard.

A great new batch of pics taking a peek behind the curtain:

8:18 PM: So what’s the Nikki Haley thing about in South Carolina. This is how she came out of nowhere in April …

7:57 PM: Following up on the points below, check out this piece from April by Christina Bellantoni. As I said, in California and Nevada Republicans look likely to nominate very non-ideal candidates. But look at the money the Dems have. Harry Reid had almost $10 million on hand 6 weeks ago. I suspect he has a good deal more now. Barbara Boxer had almost $9 million. Fiorina will probably be ready to fund her own campaign to make up the difference whatever their might be. But Boxer will have plenty of money. And Reid is going to have enough money to plaster whichever opponent Republicans put up against him.

7:53 PM: I really think Republicans are going to rue the day they nominated Carly Fiorina as their Senate candidate in California. A really iffy record as CEO of HP, in a cycle where CEOs in general aren’t that popular and you add on top of that a lurch to the right on all sorts of issues that really doesn’t pass the laugh test. I could see what was coming with Fiorina when I noticed that a number of folks who are pretty conservative actually supporting Campbell because they knew she wouldn’t hold up in a serious general.

7:44 PM: I think the big story over the course of this evening is going to be Republicans ending up with non-ideal candidates — particularly in Nevada. But it looks like they’re ending up with the most electable guy to go up against Rep. Tom Perriello (D) in Virginia’s 5th district. The AP just called this one and it looks solid for Robert Hurt (R).

7:27 PM: Okay, we’ve got a few states closed so far but as yet no definitive results. So I thought I’d start with some previews. Here’s the latest trend line for the Arkansas Dem Senate run-off. (As always, to see the full-sized graph click the TPM logo.)

Now one point to keep in mind here is that only one pollster has polled this race since the first round, Research 2000. So that means that this is mainly a trend of R2K’s polling rather than a composite of several pollsters. Also, there are some details about turnout in different parts of the state given that there are no other downballot races this time. Still, this gives you an overview of the trend.

9:23 PM: Yaawwn …. oh sorry.

9:14 PM: One thing you may be wondering about if you’re watching the election results is whether it can really be the case that almost 45,000 votes is really less than 1% of the votes. But remember, it’s less than 1% of the precincts, and the number of precincts doesn’t necessarily track at all with the number actual votes. Precincts come in different sizes, especially in urban vs. rural areas. So that’s what that’s about.

9:05 PM: So clearly Nikki Haley is going to win big tonight. But she needs to go over 50%. And with just under 50% of the precincts reporting, she’s at 47%. And that’s about where she’s been through the evening. That would leave her facing Gresham Barrett, in what could be a really tough contest.

8:42 PM: A trickle of early results coming in now. Check them out live down there to the right at the top of our election scoreboard.

8:31 PM: Polls in Arkansas just closed.

9:46 PM: And now Haley’s back down to 48% and AP is calling it as a run-off with 78% of the precincts in.

9:36 PM: More of this craziness? There’s 72% of the precincts reporting in South Carolina and Nikki Haley is at 49% of the vote. But remember, she’s got to get to 50% plus 1 vote to avoid a run-off. She’s crept up a bit over the last hour or so.

9:32 PM: Without knowing just where those votes are coming from, we really can’t draw any conclusions about the early results out of Arkansas. But Lincoln’s lead of about 6 points has been pretty consistent so far.