Polls just closed in the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race. You can watch the results start to trickle in here.
While you wait, check out this piece Eric Kleefeld has up about what a strange looking lame duck session of the Senate we may have after the November general election. With four Senate seats up for grab in special elections in which the winner will be seated immediately — not in January with everyone else — you could see a very quick uptick in the number of Republican senators.
TPM Reader A sends along: “For what shall it profit a man that he should give up his soul and lose the primary to a guy who’ll go on to lose in the general?”
7:36 PM: Early and generally meaningless numbers out of New Hampshire showing big lead for Lamontagne.
7:50 PM: Still only 4% of the vote but pretty sizable lead for Lamontagne, more than 20 points. To be clear, he’s got a hometown advantage in Manchester. But still, 20+ points. That’s a big margin even with that.
7:57 PM: Politico’s Dave Catanese says folks at Castle HQ have a good feeling.
Van Hollen and pollster Stan Greenberg are going to appear on Olbermann in a shortly. They were in that House Dem caucus meeting. And it’s Stan’s polling that Pelosi was apparently going to use to make her case. So they’ll probably have a good read on what happened.
Late Update: I don’t get to watch much political TV these days. But Olbermann had a pretty good run-down on why the Dems are basically insane if they don’t push this vote. Would have been amazing to have been in that caucus meeting — sort of back then when they had that meeting on the Titanic on whether to get on the lifeboats.
Latter Update: Greenberg doing a pretty good job explaining why actually taking a really popular position on taxes will probably help the Democrats.
And Yet Again Update: So deeply obvious DC Republicans are worried about Democrats pushing this vote. Stay tuned for more reports from Obviousville.
Van Hollen Update: Now Olbermann’s interviewing Van Hollen. Talking a good game. Curious whether Keith will press him on the core issue: are they pushing a vote?
Fail-o-Rama Update: Alas, Van Hollen totally ducking whether House Dems are going to push for an actual vote. Now talking about how they’re going to create a strong contrast by creating no contrast. Could work, I guess.
8:23 PM: A tiny smattering of votes in in Delaware. Big O’Donnell lead so far.
8:35 PM: 14% reporting and still a 10 point O’Donnell spread.
8:44 PM: Okay, we’re at 42% of precincts reporting and O’Donnell appears to have a very durable 10 point spread. The key though is that we don’t know which parts of the state those votes are coming from. And that’s going to make all the difference.
8:50 PM: This really isn’t looking good for Castle. Now down to an 8 point spread for O’Donnell but with 65% reporting.
8:55 PM: And back to a 10 point spread for O’Donnell … with 66% reporting.
8:58 PM: Well, looks like this is going to be a bit more fun of a campaign to cover than we realized. Now it’s 75% in and still an 8 point spread for O’Donnell. I’d say Castle’s career is probably over.
9:06 PM: Yep, think Castle’s toast. 85% in, 8 point lead for O’Donnell.
9:09 PM: And there you go: AP calls it for O’Donnell.
Just a massive, massive upset in Delaware. To celebrate O’Donnell’s win, remember to check out Christina Bellantoni’s piece on O’Donnell’s abstinence/sexual politics, which manage to put her to the right of the fringe of the Republican party. Her big breakthrough was her campaign to keep people abstinent even when they’re alone.
Late Hilarity Update: Here’s the NRSC’s official statement on O’Donnell’s win: “We congratulate Christine O’Donnell for her nomination this evening after a hard-fought primary campaign in Delaware.”
9:39 PM: For a while it seemed like the New Hampshire might have just blown off counting the votes. But now they seem to be reporting again. And Lamontagne has a 12 point lead over Ayotte in the GOP Senate primary with 15% of the precincts reporting.
9:47 PM: 17% in and an 11 point spread for Lamontagne.
9:53 PM: 18% and a 10 point spread for Lamontange. Definitely a clear trend. But it’s looking like we may have another GOP establishment candidate with some trouble. Only 3% in but Paladino is up over 50 points.
10:00 PM: 7% now in in the New York GOP Gov’s primary with Paladino still having a massive lead. But the votes are from upstate where you’d expect Paladino to run very strong. Still, that’s pretty strong.
Christine O’Donnell is a big supporter of self-abstinence. And Rachel Maddow dug up this clip from MTV back in the 90s with O’Donnell explaining the organization she founded to fight the scourge of masturbation. Watch the video.
10:37 PM: We’ve still got two potential upsets coming. Lamontagne still has a lead, albeit a dwindling one in New Hampshire, with 20%. And with 27% in in New York — my God — Paladino is still crushing the hapless Rick Lazio. Right now a 36 point margin. Look at live results here.