Editors’ Blog - 2010
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10.13.10 | 6:53 am
One For You, Two For Me

Jon Stewart confronts House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA): It’s “fallacy that limited government is the principled stand of conservatives. It’s only limited to the shit they want to do.” Watch.

10.13.10 | 7:19 am
SLIDESHOW: RESCUED!

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10.13.10 | 10:02 am
Don’t Hold Your Breath

Robert Gibbs: The best way to abolish “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” is for the Senate to vote to repeal it.

10.13.10 | 10:12 am
Bringing Out the Big Bacon

Have a bit of a hard time reporting this one with a straight face. But it’s intimidation and Islamophobia nonetheless. But unknowns parties used strips of bacon Sunday night to spell “PIG CHUMP” on the sidewalk leading to the Florence Islamic Center in Florence, South Carolina. Vandals had hit the center earlier this year.

Of course, all pork is forbidden for eating in Islam, as it is in Judaism.

10.13.10 | 11:08 am
D’oh!

Wow. You can’t win these days trying to have it both ways on whether to hate or accept gay Americans.

The GOP’s Carl Paladino has now lost the endorsement of Rabbi Yehuda Levin, the showboating right-wing rabbi who apparently wrote or arranged the writing of the speech that Paladino gave bashing gays — the one that caused the whole brouhaha in the first place. Levin withdrew his endorsement after Paladino subsequently apologized for his anti-gay remarks.

Frankly, I’m surprised he apologized. Not that he shouldn’t; needless to say, I completely disagree with his views on this issue. But most politicians who come out with some charged anti-gay remarks have thought through the politics, if not the issue itself. They know they’ll get slammed by supporters of the gay community. And they’ve decided they’re okay with that. After Rick Santorum or whatever other Republican says something about gays being gross, you don’t expect him to show up a couple days later apologizing and saying he’s ready to stand up for the rights of gays. Read More

10.13.10 | 12:17 pm
Laser Guns

West Virginia Senate hopeful John Raese is hitting the campaign trail with a plan to launch 1000 laser guns into orbit to shoot down rogue state missiles. “We need 1,000 laser systems put in the sky and we need it right now.”

It’s basically global missile defense but explained with the understanding of a five year old as opposed to the normal Republican’s 12 year old understanding of the technology.

10.13.10 | 1:32 pm
Rossi(non)mentum

There’s been a lot of chatter over the last few days about whether the Washington Senate contest, which had seemed to be moving out of reach for the Republicans, might be suddenly trending back to Republican Dino Rossi. A group of polls over the last couple weeks had shown pulling even or even ahead of Patty Murray. The problem was that they were almost all Republican or Republican-leaning polls. Two from Fox, two from Rasmussen and one from Republican pollster Fabrizio. So many of us have been eagerly awaiting numbers from some more disinterested pollsters. Today we got two of them. And they suggest Murray remains a prohibitive favorite.

CNN/Time has an 8 point margin for Murray and the Elway Poll, which is considered the poll of record in Washington state, has a 15 point spread in her favor.

10.13.10 | 1:40 pm
‘Republican Outreach to African-Americans’

On the Mark Kirk front it’s worth stating clearly up front that basically all of the GOP “voter integrity” operations are code words for voter suppression efforts aimed at black people, and to a lesser extent toward other minority groups. Remember, this is what a good bit of the US Attorney firing story was about: canning US Attorneys who wouldn’t disgrace their offices by bringing politically-timed ‘vote fraud’ cases to game elections for the Republican party. Our Ryan J. Reilly just spoke to Giannoulias campaign lawyer Michael C. Dorf who discussed what his campaign thinks Kirk is up to.

10.13.10 | 1:55 pm
Polls Not Budging in Wisconsin

Unlike Murray, what looks really tough for Feingold is just how consistent the last four weeks of polls have been. Pretty much everyone seems to have Russ in the mid-low 40s and Tea Partier Johnson at 50% or just over.

10.13.10 | 3:06 pm
This Could Be Big

This might be a pretty big deal.

For years people have written in to TPM to ask: must it not skew the polls that most pollsters only use landlines and not cell phones? Especially since younger, more transient voters tend to skew more Democratic?

My answer has always been: not yet.

In principle, yes, it’s a big blind spot for current polling methodology. And pollsters have been watching it closely — and nervously. In practice though most studies have shown that the difference is either trivial or very small. Pew is one of the pollsters that’s been systematically sampling this question going back a few years. As recently as the 2008 cycle the difference was just over 2 percentage points. But according to a study just released by Pew, whether or not pollsters sample cell phones is producing “differences of four to six points in the margin” in favor of the GOP. Pew is basing this conclusion on four comparisons. Three of the four polls had differences in that range. One poll showed no difference.

I would strongly recommend that Democratic enthusiasts not start adjusting the polls they’re seeing by a 4-6 point margin. I will, shall we say, believe this one when I see it. It’s also important to note that a number of national pollsters are already incorporating cell phones. Where the real vulnerability comes is in state and district polls and robo-pollsters — like Rasmussen, PPP and SurveyUSA.

Again, in the past the differences usually seemed too small to figure significantly into the prediction equation. But this could be the cycle where that changes.

We’ll soon find out.