Obama’s approval rating bounces from 50% to 56% in the latest AP poll. That and the day’s other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
Like I always like to say, wherever a right-wing freak shows up at an Obama event packing heat, TPM will be there. And with that in mind I just wanted to bring you up to date on the gun-toter du jour from early September, Mr. Josh Hendrickson from Minnesota.
We finally got a hold of his court records and learned details of what TPMer Justin Elliott aptly terms “an unfortunate flareup of Mall Cop Rage” that landed Hendrickson in the slammer for three months just before he showed up to welcome the president with his Glock and a Kel Tec 380. See our report here.
The details remain murky. But it seems clear that one important motivator for Hardin, Montana in getting in bed with American Police Force was the idea that in addition to running the town’s prison they’d also help provide local policing services. Now that the APF deal seems deep in meltdown mode, that seems to be off. But Hardin is still trying to set up its own police force and stop having to rely on the county. So yesterday, Big Horn County Commissioners okayed Hardin to start its own police force but only after getting assurances that APF won’t have anything to do with it.
We’ve been tracking the Corzine-Christie race in New Jersey pretty closely. And I’ve mentioned a few times that there’s a pattern — or an apparent pattern — of Republicans running strong in statewide races only to see their numbers collapse near election day. A close observer sent me an email last night arguing that the conventional wisdom doesn’t really square with the evidence. And really it’s much more a matter of a few races over the last decade. So Eric Kleefeld got in touch with some experts on New Jersey politics to get their read.
The upshot is that while there have been some significant exceptions, New Jersey Republicans do seem to have a track record of significantly underperforming the polls on election day. Check out Eric’s report.
From TPM Reader PB …
I’ve always assumed that this was fundamentally a polling problem, because it is not confined to statewide races. You can see a similar dynamic at work in Presidential races in NJ. If I remember correctly early polls showed Bush competitive with Kerry and McCain competitive with Obama. But of course Kerry and Obama carried NJ easily. So I don’t think this is a problem with the NJ GOP being poor closers, but rather a problem with polling NJ itself.
I have not yet reviewed the data. But this is also my recollection of at least those two races. The polls showed them much more competitive than they ended up being on election day. But it’s also consistent with what NJ politics expert Ingrid Reed told us, which is that the Dems have an organizational advantage on the ground, especially in the big population centers, that is difficult for pollsters to pick up adequately. Read More
Despite his recent fall-off in the polls, I don’t think it was until I heard his comments to the press yesterday that I really started thinking he might lose. Aruging he’s still in good shape, Christie said there’d been 45 polls taken so far this year and that he’s been ahead in all but the most recent one.
I mean, that’s brilliant, right?
In addition to letting drop a pretty good gag line, Christie’s comments struck me as a little desperate (especially for a guy who is at worst in a tie race) and something you’d expect from someone who just doesn’t have a plan for how to close. There are ways you respond to reporters about a tightening race and ways you don’t.
See the full quote and tell me whether you think I’m on the right track.
Tom DeLay uses his final moments of Dancing With the Stars post-Fame to question Obama’s citizenship and suggest he’s open to Birtherism.
A longer time reader points to why Christie’s falling short …
Christie’s challenge is that his campaign was constructed around a critique of Corzine. He’s hammered away, hitting him again and again. And he’s landed some solid blows.
But as election day draws nigh, he’s suddenly discovered that it wasn’t quite enough. And he has absolutely no positive case for office to close the deal.
Charlie Wilson’s War’s Charlie Wilson on Afghanistan: “If I were the president, I’m not sure what I’d do. I’d probably shut it down, rather than lose a lot of soldiers and treasure.”
Two men, John Iannucci, 38, and Jessup Bowllinger, 27, were arrested Tuesday in New Haven, CT when they were found driving with a pipe bomb, two shotguns, various bomb-making materials, ammunition, a can of propane and SWAT uniforms. One had apparently been arrested for bomb making earlier this year and was awaiting trial.
Here’s our report.