From TPM Reader PB …
I’ve always assumed that this was fundamentally a polling problem, because it is not confined to statewide races. You can see a similar dynamic at work in Presidential races in NJ. If I remember correctly early polls showed Bush competitive with Kerry and McCain competitive with Obama. But of course Kerry and Obama carried NJ easily. So I don’t think this is a problem with the NJ GOP being poor closers, but rather a problem with polling NJ itself.
I have not yet reviewed the data. But this is also my recollection of at least those two races. The polls showed them much more competitive than they ended up being on election day. But it’s also consistent with what NJ politics expert Ingrid Reed told us, which is that the Dems have an organizational advantage on the ground, especially in the big population centers, that is difficult for pollsters to pick up adequately.
Late Update: A knowledgeable sends in the following …
Your commenter’s point about NJ going to Kerry easily over Bush in ’04 after polling showed a close race….
The final margin was 7 in NJ in ’04 — a significant jump for Bush from his 16-point loss to Gore in 2000. (As I recall, his NJ bump was his largest in the nation.) This was because of 9/11, mostly — Bush made huge inroads in the working-class, culturally conservative cities and towns in North Jersey, places like Lyndhurst, Belleville and North Arlington, where voters liked his tough guy swagger and didn’t trust Kerry. He basically re-assembled half of the old Reagan coalition in NJ. But where he missed was with affluent suburbanites (the Summit/Chatham-types) who recoiled at the Bush’s GOP’s religiosity. They voted GOP in the ’80s, but were strong for Kerry in ’04. But no, the final 7-point margin was not really inconsistent with pre-election polling. For a while in October, some polls had it within 3 and the GOP made plenty of noise. The final Qpac poll put Kerry up 5, pretty close to the final spread.
As for ’08, no: the polls didn’t show McCain making it a game. There was no late NJ surge for Obama at all. Obama led handily in NJ throughout the fall — 23 points in a late October Qpac poll. (If we use this one, McCain actually was the late-gainer, since he only lost NJ by 15 on Election Day.)
