Apropos of my post below, I’m getting word that Coleman may be in the process of fielding the lawyers for a replay of President Bush’s 2000 recount smackdown. And this from the Associated Press gives a clue to why he is getting worried …
An Associated Press analysis of the nearly 25,000-vote difference in Minnesota presidential and U.S. Senate race tallies shows that most ballots lacking a recorded Senate vote were cast in counties won by Democrat Barack Obama.
The dynamics of both races are very different. But I’m starting to think that the Democrats may actually get to 59 seats after all. I’m not saying it’s anything like certain. Maybe not even probable. But Nate Silver is saying that the pattern of uncounted early and absentee votes in Alaska could well end up pushing Mark Begich past Ted Stevens.
The Franken-Coleman race I’ve been watching more closely. And I’m starting to think there’s a very good chance Franken could end up prevailing. Partly I believe that because of the ground Franken has already made up in the pre-recount rechecking of ballot counts. And also because of the pattern of the undervotes, which suggests that Franken has more to gain from a recount than Coleman. But what’s really got me convinced is how aggressively Coleman is going to the mats with the lawyers. On Saturday they tried and failed to get a court to prevent the opening of the 32 absentee ballots from Minneapolis.
I think Coleman’s crew realizes that a full recount is not going to end well for them.
The big political story of the day is Obama’s visit to the White House. That and the day’s other political news in the TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
TPM Reader DG: “I can’t believe Obama is already sitting down with an unpopular, aggressive world leader without preconditions.”
Hitting the ground running, I guess.
Over the next few days, one of the things I’m going to be doing is mapping out what I expect to be some of the big stories over the coming year. Some are obvious (new president); others there will be no predicting. But one in a middle category we’re going to be following closely is the rewiring of K Street. Of particular note is a topic the Washington Post dug into over weekend: the way that the K Street firms (and the larger DC service economy) are digging in to get a slice of the $700 billion bank bailout.
The big bucks, of course, will go to financial services companies. But just who gets the big bucks and on what terms? That’s where K Street comes in. Everyone on Wall Street is going to want to make their case and that means hiring people with access to help make the case — to the folks in the Treasury, the Congress and myriad people in the regulatory agencies.
We’ll be watching closely.
But the angling for the bailout money is only one part of the story. For more than a decade and especially from 2000 to 2006, Washington was totally wired for access to the GOP. No surprise. That’s where the power was. If you wanted influence in DC, you weren’t going to waste your money on Dems since they didn’t have any. It was even more so, since with the Tom DeLay/Grover Norquist ‘K Street Project’, the Republicans were far more systematic than anyone had previously been in forcing trade organizations and lobbying shops to hire Republicans. It became a big question just who was coopting who.
Now, at least for the next two years, the Democrats have more power in their hands than the Republicans did at any point between 1994 and 2008. And yet many of the big trade orgs and all the similar places are staffed with people who were put there to access the GOP. Some of that had already begun to change after 2006. But it will start changing with a vengeance now — not just because Democratic dominance is secured for at least two years but because so much is now on the table.
Two other points to consider.
One characteristic of K Street under Republican rule was that the interests with the most money were, as a general matter, in sync with the people they were trying to influence. Oil companies, Phrma, the Business Roundtable, etc. They all wanted things that — by and large — Republicans were ideologically inclined to give them. Democrats get a lot of money from the same people. But there is at least much more tension with the Democrats, though how much will be the big question. It also means that Republicans will likely never get shut out the way Democrats did because even if they lack power they still share interests.
The other point is that it’s not just the lobby shops and trade organizations. There’s also ‘deep lobbying’. Who runs the think tanks? Who’s giving them the biggest grants? What are they studying? There will be plenty of shady deals to go around. But it’s not just the shady deals. It’s the big picture. The rewiring of the whole town. Like I said, we’ll be playing close attention.
I’m still waiting to find out more about how the Russia-Georgia War started and just what Randy Scheunemann knew about it. It turns out Tom Hayden is wondering too.
Just out from MSNBC …
MSNBC has voted for four more years of Keith Olbermann and the top-rated “Countdown with Keith Olbermann,” it was announced today by Phil Griffin, President, MSNBC. The new four-year agreement calls for Olbermann to continue as host of “Countdown;” additionally, Olbermann will play a prominent role in MSNBC’s coverage of all major news events. He will also continue to co-host NBC’s “Football Night in America” studio show.
In the wake of a significant defeat in the presidential election and a second straight cycle of substantial House and Senate losses, the Republican party is starting to ask itself some serious questions…
Full-size video at TPMtv.com.