The dynamics of both races are very different. But I’m starting to think that the Democrats may actually get to 59 seats after all. I’m not saying it’s anything like certain. Maybe not even probable. But Nate Silver is saying that the pattern of uncounted early and absentee votes in Alaska could well end up pushing Mark Begich past Ted Stevens.
The Franken-Coleman race I’ve been watching more closely. And I’m starting to think there’s a very good chance Franken could end up prevailing. Partly I believe that because of the ground Franken has already made up in the pre-recount rechecking of ballot counts. And also because of the pattern of the undervotes, which suggests that Franken has more to gain from a recount than Coleman. But what’s really got me convinced is how aggressively Coleman is going to the mats with the lawyers. On Saturday they tried and failed to get a court to prevent the opening of the 32 absentee ballots from Minneapolis.
I think Coleman’s crew realizes that a full recount is not going to end well for them.