Wisconsin

The Marquette University Law School poll is the premium in-state Wisconsin poll. Its latest poll yesterday had sobering news for Democrats. Ron Johnson is now 6 points ahead of Mandela Barnes among likely voters. What caught my eye though is that it was tied among registered voters. I’m not trying to unskew this poll. That 6 point margin is, unfortunately, in line with other recent polls. But a 6 point difference between registered and likely voters is really large. That may show a very large GOP turnout and motivation advantage or maybe it’s missing something. Notably the same big divergence showed up in Marquette’s survey of the governor’s race. But here it was far more in the Democrats’ favor. Gov. Evers was up by 5 points among registered voters and by one among likelies.

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