The New York Times has an editorial this morning noting that Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) “is now struggling to maintain his lead against a Republican challenger, Benjamin Lange, who is running on a familiar program of smaller government and opposition to the health care law, the stimulus and growing federal spending.”
I hadn’t realized that Braley — one of the good guys in Congress who founded the House Populist Caucus and won reelection in 2008 with 65 percent of the vote — was in trouble. The truth is it’s hard to tell. There’s been virtually no polling of the race. The one poll that has been conducted in the Iowa First Congressional District was commissioned by the American Future Fund. It gave Braley a 13-point lead. But that was back in September, and AFF isn’t the most reliable source. The group has poured more than $800,000 into attack ads against Braley. The Chamber of Commerce is also active in that race with big money.
Is all that outside money shifting the race? Again, it’s hard to say empirically. But as the
Telegraph Herald in Dubuque notes it’s having an effect on the optics:
The group’s money is apparently having an impact. This week, several national political blogs predicted a more competitive contest between Braley and Lange, even though no hard polling backs it up.
Real Clear Politics calls the race a toss-up, and the Cook Political Report moved the race closer to toss-up, from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
Braley’s district may be one of those races to watch to see just how well Republicans do come Tuesday. If House elections are equivalent to thinning the herd, then what’s really worth watching isn’t the defeat of the weak and lame but how deep into the heart of the healthy herd the opposition party is able to reach. Keep an eye on this one.
