The good thing about presidential primaries and electability is that we aren’t just limited to guessing. Everyone’s running (almost literally). We’ve got the better part of a year to see how the different contenders campaign and hold up under the pressure of a campaign. For the moment, Joe Biden clearly polls better than any other current candidate against Donald Trump.
There’s a good argument that some substantial amount of that is just name recognition. We’ve seen what 18 months of a mix of opposition drubbing and intra-party acrimony can do to a candidate – see Clinton, Hillary D.
I’m skeptical of how Biden holds up in a campaign based on his two earlier presidential runs. With all that said, the likelihood of defeating Donald Trump is to me overwhelmingly the most important factor in choosing a candidate – factors one through three, really one through 300. The key is just figuring out who that person is.
