I had some further conversations this afternoon about the Dems’ strategy on the coming shutdown fight. They basically just confirmed the outlines of what I discussed in the two posts I did earlier today, but with some additional detail and color. One point I heard from one of my colleagues is how much Senate Dems seem to be unified on this strategy — even Elizabeth Warren, who recently had been arguing that there was no point participating in budget negotiations if the White House is not following the budget. She too seems to have shifted to the “give us back the Obamacare subsidies” position.
So what are Senate Democrats thinking exactly? How can this make sense?
I got asked this this afternoon. And I think it’s actually pretty clear what they’re thinking if you look at all the pieces on the playing board. There’s actually a decent logic to it. I just think it’s a bad logic.
I believe the thinking goes like this. Democrats think the 2026 midterms are shaping up quite nicely for them. They have a shot at winning back both houses of Congress, and they’re in a particularly strong position to win back the House. This isn’t as crazy or Pollyanna-ish of an idea as it might seem. There’s lot of evidence that elite media opinion is significantly underestimating Donald Trump’s unpopularity. I think they’re right that a big backlash is brewing. And there’s more than a year more time for it to brew.
If that’s the case, why do something to upset the apple cart? Why do something that could throw things off in a dramatically new direction? You’re winning already! A shutdown fight is really unpredictable. Maybe Trump is happy to shut everything down. (I don’t think this is the case, for what it’s worth.) In this theory of the case, Democrats don’t want a shutdown. They don’t just not want it in the abstract, which makes some sense, but they don’t want it to come to that. Asking for the Obamacare subsidies back is probably a workable ask since the White House is probably afraid of those cuts as well, or worried enough that they can be convinced to at least delay them past the midterms.
Meanwhile, for Democratic voters who are angry that Democratic electeds aren’t fighting, they get something big: reinstatement of critical subsidies that allow millions of people to get health care coverage. How can you say that isn’t a big victory? Obamacare is important. (It is.) Oh, we didn’t fight? Actually, we fought Donald Trump and we forced him to reinstate Obamacare subsidies.
This all fits together. It covers a lot of ground. I think it’s a very bad approach. But it’s not crazy. There’s a logic to it. If you’re convinced they’re actually taking the right approach, you can go back to this morning’s Backchannel for my explanation of why I think this is a bad approach.
