You’ve certainly seen or heard about President Trump’s morning threat to destroy Iran’s civil energy and bridge infrastructure if the country doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. To quote him: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH. Praise be to Allah.” (That’s not my arch summary. That’s a quote.) I will set aside that these would appear to constitute war crimes as going without saying. The man is careening from one day to the next from ‘the Strait doesn’t matter’ to (alternatively) ‘not our problem/it will open itself’ to ‘I give you fucking two days or you’ll be living in hell. Of course, then, he has then repeatedly “postponed” the day of destruction after encouraging talks with Iran leaders, talks which we then learn a few days later never occurred. But now he says, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran.” (This time I really, really mean it!)
In other words, talk like an insane person and carry a really small stick. He thinks these outbursts make him look stronger but each threat and retreat makes him look weaker and more clearly not in control of the situation. These are the words of a man who has spent a lifetime either TACOing or bullshitting his way out of messes suddenly coming up against an immovable object and at a moment when he already appears to be under some mix of extreme psychic strain and a more general senescent decompensation.
There is another part of this equation which I do not think has gotten sufficient focus. On March 24th The New York Times published an article which reported that the Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has told President Trump that he needs to finish the job, overthrow the Iranian regime or render it so feeble that it cannot threaten anyone – the second condition likely being impossible without achieving the first. As the Times put it (emphasis added), “Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government.”
Placing a story like this in the Times, is about as clear and as audacious a message a Saudi ruler can send to the US government without purchasing a nationwide 30 second ad campaign. I interpret this as him saying: just to be sure the message is getting through or in case you’re getting the message and not sharing it with your people. Trump whacked a hornets nest and MBS says now Trump needs to remove the nest. It can’t be left in place. He needs to overthrow or defang the Iranian regime. The status quo is unacceptable, whatever nonsense of the day Trump may be saying about the Strait not being his problem.
The common thinking in the US is that President Trump either blundered his way into this mess or was goaded into it by Benjamin Netanyahu. There’s a bit of truth to the second idea and a lot to the first. But it’s MBS and the leader of the UAE along with other gulf princes who are really Trump’s guys, much more than Benjamin Netanyahu. The way the Trump White House has interwoven US security, money and geopolitics with them runs much deeper. And, critically and relatedly, the Trump family’s business ties with them are infinitely deeper.
I’m not saying Trump won’t follow through on these threats, though I think he’s most likely to cave again. What it means is that this war is likely to last a lot longer than most people think. What it all comes down to is that I don’t think Trump can leave, even though he’s desperate to. That is the context in which we need to see these escalating rage tweets.
