A new poll shows Val Demmings leading Marco Rubio by 4 percentage points. (University of North Florida, Demings 48%, Rubio 44%.) I suspect that this poll is an outlier. But it is actually on trend, with a group of recent polls showing a relatively close race. It’s the first independent poll of the race in a month and the first real known-quantity poll since the beginning of 2022. Given the rightward drift of Florida, I would not be getting my hopes up that this is a Democratic pick up. But it is a strong indication that this is a seat Republicans will have to fight to hold on to. Indeed, I suspect some of retrenchment from races in Arizona and Pennsylvania we mentioned yesterday is to defend seats like these.
Latest
![](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/GettyImages-2158137777.jpg?w=150&h=150&crop=1)
1 day ago
5th Circuit Panel Accuses Right-Wing Judge Of ‘Abuse Of Discretion’ In Obamacare Case
![](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1243793334-scaled.jpg?w=150&h=150&crop=1)
2 days ago
Only Clarence Thomas Would Let Domestic Abusers Keep Their Guns In New Ruling
![](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GettyImages-1163818437-scaled.jpg?w=150&h=150&crop=1)
2 days ago
Out With a Whimper: Alito Keeps Head Down in Moore Case
![Brett Kavanaugh](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/kavanaugh-scotus-1.jpg?w=150&h=150&crop=1)
3 days ago
Supreme Court Decision Spares Potential Future Wealth Tax — For Now
Latest Editors' Blog
-
|June 21, 2024 12:48 p.m.
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss the proliferation of deceptively…
-
|June 21, 2024 11:18 a.m.
There’s a wrongheaded tendency to think the Court isn’t quite as bad or corrupt when it hands down one of…
-
|June 20, 2024 11:33 a.m.
Yesterday I opened my inbox to an Axios email with the subject line: “Dems Fear Biden Loss.” Needless to say,…
-
|June 19, 2024 1:49 p.m.
Here’s a an interesting look at the history of TPM, and its origin story, from Rick Perlstein at The American…