Prep for the Overshoot

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We’re about to see one of the most persistent things about horse race election coverage – the overshoot based on the politics and results of the moment. As I noted earlier, people had convinced themselves last week that Trump was basically done – largely on the basis of a few bad news cycles and a big loss in Wisconsin. As long as he didn’t get to 1237, he was toast. But Wisconsin was obviously an outlier. Now though things look very different. And they are different. But part of that is that Trump was never in as bad of shape as people thought ten days ago. It was always going to be extremely difficult to deny the nomination to the clear plurality winner of the primary process. #NeverTrump has its work cut out for it. But it did a week, two weeks and three weeks ago too.

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