More Exposure Data for New York City

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April 27, 2020 1:00 p.m.

New serology/antibodies data from New York State is out today. This is the second round of serology testing. Gov. Cuomo said the state has now tested 7,500 people. Presumably that’s a rough count and I assume it is inclusive of the previous number, which was 3,000 tests. This second round had 14.9% positive statewide, up from 13.9%. In New York City, the number is 24.7%, up from 21.2%.

They’re not releasing very detailed information on these numbers. I presume that 24.7% is the number for this last week rather than a running total of all the tests. But again on all these points Cuomo didn’t say. That three point jump could simply be a margin of error. But obviously the depth of exposure is not constant. It makes sense that it would be going up. Indeed, there’s a roughly two week lag until a person converts to being seropositive. The second half of April was a critical period of spread.

If this percentage holds up – ~25% of the New York City population – that is just a remarkable number. It shows the sheer scale of the outbreak. Sobering. Amazing.

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