Members-Only Article
I wanted to follow up on Nicole Lafond’s post from yesterday afternoon. Subject to signature verification, a broad right to abortion and reproductive rights in the form of a state constitutional amendment will now appear on the ballot in Michigan in the November election. It seems very likely the referendum will win and essentially end the abortion issue in the state of Michigan going forward, excluding the possibility of a national abortion ban or Court ruling that might conceivably override the state constitution. One recent poll shows that 58% of Michigan residents oppose the Dobbs decision and 52% strongly oppose it. Only 34% support it.
For months Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has been attuned not only to the substantive importance of protecting abortion rights in the state but how the issue might help her win reelection. Michigan has a particular set of factors which make it particularly on the line in the context of abortion politics. It has a defunct 1931 law on the books which in the absence of Roe immediately outlaws abortion in the state in virtually all cases. It’s currently held up in state litigation. So it hasn’t come into effect yet. At the same time, abortion rights are quite popular in the state. As we noted above, a referendum is highly likely to win.
Michigan is one of those heavily gerrymandered upper midwestern states where Republicans routinely control the state legislature even while Democrats routinely win statewide races. In those states, holding the governorship becomes a single point of failure or protection for abortion rights. Without a Democratic governor, Michigan is all but certain to cease being a free state even though the majority of the population supports abortion rights. If the constitutional amendment succeeds that removes the importance of the governorship. But having it on the ballot likely assures Whitmer’s reelection since it is likely to bring out voters who are disproportionately likely to support her.
But these aren’t the only electoral implications. Michigan has at least three up-for-grabs House seats in November. The inclusion of the constitutional amendment could quite likely save one or more of those House seats for the Democrats. It also holds at least the possibility of flipping control of the state legislature. If you’re in a close run state to start with, you really, really want to be running with someone or in this case something on the ballot that has overwhelming public support. Now they are.
What this all amounts to is that Michigan Democrats and Michigan abortion rights supporters have already put Roe on the ballot in the way national Democrats are trying to do and really need to do.
