There’s a long way to go before November 2026. The pace of malign events just keeps increasing. But even with all that I want to mention some significant shifts on the 2026 Senate recruiting front. It’s an article of faith for very good reasons that regaining control of Senate is an almost impossible hill for Democrats to climb given the map in play. Democrats have two challenging holds in Georgia and Michigan. Their best pickup opportunities are in states that have repeatedly eluded them, Maine and North Carolina. Beyond that it’s all reliably red states. All that, alas, remains basically the same. But there are a series of shifts that make Democrats taking over the Senate look more plausible even though the odds remain against it.
Let’s run through some details.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper running in North Carolina was key. That’s not a done deal race by any means. But Cooper is unquestionably the best potential Democratic candidate in the state. Meanwhile, former Senator Sherrod Brown has just announced that he is running to re-enter the Senate after losing to Bernie Moreno last year by 3.8%. Ohio is clearly a red state. And Brown lost just last year. So on its face that doesn’t sound terribly promising. But Brown is unquestionably the best positioned candidate for Democrats in Ohio. And it’s not implausible that 2026 could be a 3-4 point better environment for Democrats than 2024 was.
Finally, there’s news in Iowa. Over the weekend, Iowa State Rep. Josh Turek (D) announced he’s running for Senate. I know very little about the internal workings of Iowa politics. But the people I follow who know it really well act like he’s the guy, based on electoral record, candidate quality, etc. Just this morning, already-declared candidate J.D. Scholten has announced he’s dropping out and endorsing Turek. So it seems like the field may be clearing for Turek.
The added wrinkle in Iowa is that it’s not clear who the Republican will be. There are many signs that incumbent Joni Ernst may not run again. But as of now she’s made no announcement. If she doesn’t run, Rep. Ashley Hinson looks like a likely nominee. Hinson is one of those congresspeople who is solid with the MAGA world while also coming off as seemingly fairly normal. She’s a former local news anchor, which is always a great in for a candidate. It’s not entirely clear who Republicans would prefer as their nominee: the Trump-rough-up Ernst or the up-and-coming Hinson, who lacks the benefit of incumbency. (The GOP candidates in Ohio and North Carolina are non-entities; Hinson is not.) On Iowa I strongly recommend Laura Belin for a smart, skeptical look at the state’s politics.
Let’s put Ohio and Iowa in a category of really tough but possible pickups. The third state on that list is Texas. Again, it’s a source of repeated Democratic heartbreaks. But the vicious battle between incumbent soft soap John Cornyn and feral state Attorney General Ken Paxton holds out at least the hope of a divided party or a deeply damaged nominee. National Republicans are making it pretty clear they’re concerned about the race, especially if Paxton is the nominee but also if Cornyn wins in too damaged a state.
To state the obvious, this is still a map where everything has to fall into place for Democrats to capture the Senate. But on the recruitment front, Democrats are getting pretty much all the things they need to make that possible — the necessary but not sufficient condition. (The remaining question is whether Maine Gov. Janet Mills decides to challenge Susan Collins.) Recruitment itself is a good indicator of the political winds. The way this works is you force Republicans into challenging races in a lot of places where they shouldn’t need to break a sweat. And on some of those you may get lucky. The assumption, the hope is that there’s a deep anti-Republican mood in the electorate that makes the difference in races that otherwise might be just out of reach. Even in races you don’t win, you make Republicans defend seats and spend money across the map. If there’s not an anti-Republican mood in the electorate after two years of this, Democrats have more to worry about than the Senate.
I’m cautiously optimistic. But a lot of things definitely need to fall into place.