Josh’s Random Thoughts Blog #2

Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

9:37 PM: Given all uncertainty created by different methods of voting and when those different buckets of votes are counted, it’s become a much bigger deal not just to look at key counties and precincts but when entire counties are counted. Once a county is fully counted, you can set aside election day voting, early voting and just look at earlier elections. So for instance, if a Democrat is exceeding Biden’s margins in a state Biden won that’s a clear signal, regardless of what the statewide totals are. Right now that kind of analysis is making New Hampshire look like a hold for Democrats and North Carolina a hold for Republicans. Again, broadly in line with the polls.

9:19 PM: Here’s one metric to see the night so far. Election watchers were looking at three House races in Virginia: Incumbent Dems Reps. Luria, Spanberger and Wexton. Luria was the most endangered. If she held on, significant GOP underperformance and conceivably even a Dem House hold. In a wave, Spanberger would lose too. In a total blowout even Wexton might go down. At the moment, Spanberger is looking like she likely, but by no means definitely, will hold on. And Luria is still in it. With those two races close, I assume Wexton is in good shape. Big picture that looks like GOP House pick up by probably not a big majority. Again, very early. Virginia’s one state. But this starts to give us a general sense of where we might be headed.

9:14 PM: You wouldn’t expect there to be much concern about a congressional race in Rhode Island. But there was a lot of Democratic fretting about Seth Magaziner in RI-2. The local affiliate has just called that race for Magaziner. So that’s a D hold.

9:05 PM: We’re still very early and at a point where it’s difficult to get an outline of big pictures. Having said that, what seems clear so far is that the polls were broadly accurate. By which I mean, the close races are super close. Maybe that’s not the hugest headline. But it’s a data point that’s still pretty key. On something like the Senate I think we’re still very much in jump ball territory. The races that were supposed to be super close appear to be super close. And we don’t know who is winning them.

8:58 PM: Fairly encouraging numbers for Democrats in New Hampshire. They’re running ahead of Biden’s 2020 numbers, at least in some key areas.

8:15 PM: We have some possibly encouraging reporting for Abigail Spanberger in VA-7. I want to be clear what my metric is here. To me, if a Dem who was supposed to go down in a GOP wave is holding there own, that’s encouraging. Doesn’t mean they’re going to win. But a good sign for them and gives us some hints about the broader story. More on this in a moment.

Latest Editors' Blog
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: