Two years on from Donald Trump’s 2024 second election to the presidency we can identify clear patterns separating Term One and Term Two. I’ve noted at other times that for all the norm-busting, outrages and crimes of Term One, if you were a regular person who didn’t pay much attention to politics, very little of it intruded into your life. And the economy remained buoyant. The fact that Trump inherited a strong economy doesn’t matter in terms of public tolerance.
Of course, Trump still got quite unpopular. But to the extent that the Trump opposition kept up that resigned refrain “Nothing matters” there was a reason: If you simply didn’t pay attention to politics, most people could say, ‘Yeah, he’s weird but how is it affecting me?’ And at least before COVID there was much less — in terms of things that are materially affecting your life today — that many Trump foes allowed.
Whatever happens on election day tomorrow, Trump is today is at a whole new level of unpopularity. It’s not just deeper in aggregate, it but extends well into most Red States. Last month, Trump had net positive approval in a mere eight states and was underwater in 42 states, according to a report by Civiqs. It’s not a perfect apples to apples comparison. But in 2018, according to Gallup, Trump reached the higher bar of approval over 50% in 17 states. To note a few examples, Trump was break-even in Ohio in 2018; he’s net negative 19 today. In Alaska he was +16 then and -11 today. Negative 6 in Iowa then, negative 21 today.
That new level of unpopularity is overwhelmingly due to four things: tariff policy and the impact on inflation; the Iran War and its affect on gas prices and inflation generally; the mass deportation program which has become increasingly unpopular and offends most Americans’ basic sense of decency and American liberties; and the pervasive free-for-all corruption Trump has partaken in and presided over. Judged by affect on public opinion rather than objective importance, the first two seem most important. There are many other depredations that are at least as bad but have been less decisive in shaping public opinion.
Put simply, none of those four things could have happened during his first term because he was surrounded by people who knocked these ideas down, diverted him on to other hobbyhorses or in key cases simply refused to implement them. They all happened since January 2025 because he broke through those guardrails largely by taming the Republican Party and staff his administration strictly with yes people and true believers.
Needless to say, it’s not that Term One went great. And by the end of Term One Trump was finding his way toward assembling the group of toadies and true believers who would characterize Term Two. That’s what made Jan 6th and the larger plot to reverse the 2020 election possible. Still the difference between the two terms is stark. On one level we know this basic difference. Term Two is Trump unleashed. But there’s less attention to how removing them allowed him to become the most unpopular midterm president in at least eighty years. He unleashed himself to do these things by staffing Term Two with people who would faithfully and aggressively implement his most lawless, stupid and fundamentally unpopular policies.
