Some of you will disagree with this. And perhaps the future will vindicate your criticism. But I don’t think we should be distracted by Trump’s nonsense about Greenland, the Panama Canal or bum rushing Canada into becoming a U.S. state. We’re all under the grip of that line: “When someone tells you who they are, believe them.” But that doesn’t always work with con men and pathological liars. None of this stuff is going to happen. At a minimum, we shouldn’t get pulled into these outrage cycles or pretending any of this is a thing until you see the U.S. deploying military assets in Central America or … Maine? (I’m not sure where your deploy military assets to menace Greenland but wherever that is, wait for that.)
I saw this CNN article about how Danish officials “fear Trump is much more serious about acquiring Greenland than in first term.” And I get it: the U.S. is a nuclear power and Trump’s a freak. I don’t begrudge them being concerned. But I restate the point. None of this stuff is going to happen. What’s possible is a bunch of bullshit followed by some negotiations in which the Kingdom of Denmark agrees to some minor changes to the existing agreement which allows the U.S. military pretty vast liberties to defend and operate in Greenland. (That’s the NAFTA model: bullshit followed by some discussions and then huge fanfare for marginal changes to existing agreements.) It is the same story that we’ve talked about in other contexts: the constant stream of threats and maybes, all of which create what in this case may not be a penumbra of fear so much as a penumbra of reaction. Absurd tempests in teapots, the effect of which is to have everyone else in a pattern of reaction. He acts — or really doesn’t act, he jabbers — and everyone else reacts. And spin maybe 12 of those things at any one time. And that’s life under Trump.
Some things we know Trump is serious about. Trump’s clearly going to up the number of deportations. Whether that’s really going to be “mass deportation” or not or what counts as that we don’t know. But we know some version of that is going to happen because he and his people have laid a lot of groundwork for that. Paying for the Trump tax cuts by taking away people’s health care. That’s real. Abusive criminal probes, same thing. We know the difference, because talk is cheap and Trump’s world is mostly talk, threat and bravado. The spike to this latest round about Greenland was textbook Trump, ending on he won’t “rule out” military force. And everyone flutters into a tizzy. Action is when things get real. Are we really falling into this same pattern where we’re into “not ruling out” nonsense cycles?
It’s built into the fabric of life with Trump that when you say something like this, a chorus of people will say you’re being naive, or this isn’t normal or whatever else. But that is simply a militant commitment to living within the eddies and currents of this man’s drama. It is the empirical reality that this man is not only a pathological liar but more importantly operates by churning up countless dramas like these that he never follows through on. This is the experience. These are the facts. There’s nothing remotely naive about it.
As soon as anything happens that suggests this is one of those things that is more than just silliness and fluff, I’ll definitely be paying close attention. For now this is just an old man ranting. And everyone should treat it that way: with a mix of mockery and keeping the threats in their rhetorical back pocket because there are already growing signs that Trump’s policies are stirring up inflation again. So be ready to say ’til the cows come home he was focused on this bullshit rather than focusing on the cost of living.
I’ve had these conversations so many times that I know there are people thinking, well you’re sure gonna feel dumb if he blockades Greenland or Panama! Well, not really. I don’t control the world. But I do like to play my part in nudging things at least a bit in better directions. If there’s a natural disaster I might evacuate my home. There are plenty of things that might conceivably happen in the future and I’ll react to them when they happen. Or I’ll even begin to prepare for them when there’s a real prospect they might happen. But not before. You can see the absurd pattern of reasoning this perverse man has bamboozled so many well-meaning people into adopting. You’ve got to be stirred up and on the barricades about a million different random things Trump fusses about on social media because if you don’t then you’ll feel dumb if something actually happens that he once posted about on Truth Social. That’s absurd. That’s the spell he casts over people. This ain’t our first rodeo. We’ve been here before and we should know that.
What’s real is that Trump has set himself and his party a mammoth legislative challenge that will start unfolding next month. It’s not clear they can pull it off. And there’s already a good chance the various things he wants to do will start driving the economy back in the wrong direction. That’s real. That requires attention and a strategy.
Know who this guy is. Ignore his nonsense.