Yesterday in my wrap up of the primary results out of Colorado I said that incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper had defeated challenger Julie Gonzales pretty handily, though 43% for a challenger is still very, very high against someone so entrenched in the state’s politics. The last time I’d looked it was roughly 57% to 43%, still a big showing for a challenger but a fairly comfortable margin.
It didn’t stay there. We’re now at just over 97% of the vote counted and the margin is 53% to 47%. Horseshoes and hand grenades and all that. And yes, I looked at the numbers and even if it gets closer I believe it is mathematically impossible to catch up. But that’s a much closer margin. And Hickenlooper massively outspent Gonzales, though that’s usually the nature of these races. He could have easily gone down to defeat.
I’ll repeat the point I’ve made in a few emails and on Bluesky. I think you need at least a couple incumbent Democratic senators to be defeated in primaries to shift the posture of the caucus to make Court reform possible in 2029, assuming a trifecta. Maybe I’m wrong. A few people have told me I’m being too pessimistic or that the Court’s on-going corruption will push senators in the right direction. Maybe. But I’m one of the most bullish on chance’s of reform happening. And I’m not sure or confident of that at all. In any case, hope is not a plan. The stakes are too high.
The point isn’t that Hickenlooper is a bad guy and even the worst of the Democratic senators. I’m definitely not trying to demonize him or single him out. The issue is more that he’s part of the center of gravity of the Senate Democratic caucus which remains institutionalist, cautious and generally unwilling to rock the boat or respond aggressively to the moment. From what I can tell Hickenlooper was a really effective and good public servant through a couple decades before getting to the senate. Voters agreed and elected him again and again, as mayor, governor and finally senator.
But not everyone is meant for the moment. As I told someone yesterday, I would be shocked if Hickenlooper became a Sinema/Manchin type figure standing against a caucus consensus in favor of reform. It’s more than if those kinds of comity-focused institutionalists are the caucus’s center of gravity you’re just never going to get there. A few examples have to be made to shift the balance and signal what’s now required of congressional Democrats.
