9:11 PM: One possible explanation for the uncertainty and conflicting signals is that Lamb is over-performing in many key areas but Saccone seems to be over-performing in his own state legislative district. In other words, a couple or more than a couple conflicting trends.
9:05 PM: So I follow the NYT “needle” very closely. It’s a great widget and is often very predictive. It’s sort of an automated version of the way an experienced election watcher can look beneath the total results and tell you where things are going by look at individual precincts. That “needle” has swung heavily in Saccone’s favor in the last 20 minutes or so. But the numbers crunchers I watch aren’t convinced things have moved that far in Saccone’s favor. Unclear. Less bullish for Lamb than it looked a half hour ago. But we need to see more.
8:58 PM: The tide seems to have shifted in Saccone, the GOPers, favor. Still early. But more uncertain now than it was.
8:45 PM: We’re at a quarter to nine. The top line current results show an overwhelming lead for Lamb, the Democrat. But that’s meaningless. The early results are from counties that favor Dems. What’s not meaningless is that Lamb seems to be exceeding the margins he needs in key precincts. It’s not by big margins but by meaningful ones. And that pattern seems to be showing up in a lot of places. Cautious optimism warranted for Dems. Of course, still need to see more.
