Member Newsletter
We have a new set of swing state polls out this morning from Bloomberg/Morning Consult. They show a number of things, which we’ll get to in a moment. But at a meta or media amplification level they also help us again see the massive megaphone tied to the NYT/Siena poll, notwithstanding the fact that its results were questionable in the 2022 cycle and have been big (Trump-favorable) outliers for much of this cycle. There are lots of polls. But the NYT-Siena poll’s outsized impact on news headlines extends even beyond the Times own brand and reach.
So let’s look at this new set of polls.
First they show Biden making gains across a number of states. They show him tied in Nevada (April, -8); back 3 in Georgia (April, -6); and behind by 5 in Arizona (April, -7). But let’s remember that poll “gains” aren’t necessarily real. In Georgia and Arizona these shifts are modest and could well just be bounces around the margin of error or differential response. The Bloomberg/MC poll has been, for the last few months, alternating between Biden Comeback! and Biden Toast!
The shift in Nevada is big and comes after the NYT/Siena poll showing Biden back by 12 points. But again, it’s well to point out that while Trump has had significant leads in Nevada in many polls, the NYT-Siena poll was already huge outlier. An 8 point shift is a good sign for Biden. But again, assume the NYT-Siena was baloney and not a point of comparison.
Now lets go to the Blue Wall states. Michigan, Biden +1; Wisconsin, Trump +1; Pennsylvania, Trump +2. I noted when we discussed the NYT-Siena poll that despite the headlines about Biden being behind in all or all but one of the swing states, that poll actually showed a functional tie in those three Blue Wall states when you looked at the Likely Voter screens. Here we see the same basic story. And note that these numbers are Registered Voter screens. Biden’s numbers would likely be slightly better with a Likely voter screen.
All the noise notwithstanding, we see a pretty clear pattern. It’s a tie race in the Blue Wall states. If Biden wins the Blue Wall states he wins but literally with no margin for error — 270-268. You really want — although perhaps you do not technically “need” — to add at least one of the southern tier states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. That’s where the race is.