A new Quinnipiac poll has Joe Biden far out ahead of every other Democratic presidential candidate (41%), with Bernie Sanders (14%) and Elizabeth Warren (12%) in close to a tie. Notably, Biden and Sanders are in close to a tie among Democrats 18-49 (Biden 26%, Sanders 28%) while Democrats 50 and over are all but unanimous (Biden 52%, Sanders 5%).
Biden is beating Trump handily in a state match-up 50%-41%. And the rest are in the standard pattern. Sanders 48% v Trump 42%. Warren 47% v Trump 43%. Harris and Buttigieg both have a 1 point margin over Trump.
I’ve obviously been making the case that people are only just getting around to grappling with the depth of Trump’s unpopularity and his uphill climb for reelection. But getting too wrapped up in any one state poll eighteen months out is a mistake. My point is neither that Trump is sure to lose nor that we can put too much stock in any one poll or group of polls so far in advance. My point is that there is a lot of data across a wide spectrum, some of it public opinion data and some not, which suggests a baseline assumption that the odds at present appear to be stacked against Trump’s quest for reelection.