Member Newsletter
I find it very hard to make sense of what the likely outcomes are. But I wanted to point your attention to a series of developments in the Biden-Netanyahu relationship and the U.S.-Israel relationship that could escalate dramatically very soon. First there’s this article in Haartez which says the U.S. might suspend the sale of offensive weaponry to Israel by later this month. (Unfortunately the piece is paywalled.) The tripwire is a national security memorandum Biden signed last month which gives Israel until March 25th to provide the U.S. with written assurances that weapons sales from the U.S. will only be used in accord with international law and that it will pledge to facilitate and not obstruct aid deliveries into Gaza.
That’s the calendar tripwire.
I have a hard time making sense of how real that threat is. But the Haaretz article, reported from Washington, suggests it’s very real. Over the weekend, in a conversation with MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart, Biden said that an invasion of Rafah was a “red line” for him. So the President has now made a threat he can’t easily back down from, though just what he’s threatening isn’t entirely clear.
Biden had alrady upped the ante in his SOTU speech, in his hot mic comments after the speech and then further in his interview with Capehart. The key line that got Netanyahu’s attention was Biden saying that Netanyahu is now hurting rather than protecting Israel. This is part of a broader White House messaging tactic, trying to distinguish between its support for Israel, which it says is ironclad, versus Netanyahu, which is fading. That’s a message with domestic and international audiences. It’s also directed to an audience in Israel. Poll after poll has made clear that Netanyahu’s political standing has never recovered from the shattering impact of October 7th. He hasn’t necessarily gotten less popular recently. But the reluctance to hold major public protests against him has disappeared. He’s able to remain in power by a brittle but still holding consensus that the country can’t go to elections in wartime. Biden’s message is that Netanyahu’s continuance in office is hurting Israel’s security.
This morning Netanyahu went on the attack, in an interview with Fox News, saying that Israel is united behind him, and citing a poll showing that American’ overwhelming support Israel’s war on Hamas. This came after another interview with Politico, in which he made similar if more technical comments. Netanyahu also repeatedly made the claim that disagreements between the U.S. and Israel only help Hamas.
As you can see there’s lots of positioning on both sides. But what is most notable to me is that sides have real interests in a breach, though different sorts of interests. So we shouldn’t assume this will necessarily get worked out because both sides have an interest in doing so.
Netanyahu has pushed Biden to the breaking point over the last few months. It’s not only the war itself, or perhaps not even primarily that. He has absolutely rejected all of the U.S.’s post-war planning proposals and been at best passive and indifferent to the humanitarian situation in Gaza. All together these have put Biden in a tough position domestically and internationally. Netanyahu has taken everything Biden has given, which is a ton, and stiffed him on almost everything. So over and above the policy imperatives, Biden has a lot of interest in some level of breach with Netanyahu. He almost needs it.
Netanyahu said over the weekend that he’s going to break through Biden’s red line in Rafah. But an actual look at the situation on the ground suggests that’s not happening.
On the other side of the equation, an open breach with Biden may be Netanyahu’s only way to restore his shattered political reputation at home. To be clear, I doubt very much that’s possible. It’s not that Israelis are necessarily devoted to Biden, or that they support Biden’s views on Gaza or two states. But the damage and loss of trust in Netanyahu is just too great. But if you have three options, two of which have zero chance of success and one which has very little chance of success, obviously that last one looks pretty good. That’s Netanyahu’s situation. Picking a fight with Biden in which he casts himself as the only leader willing to stand up to his meddling is kind of the only card he has left to play.
Netanyahu’s reference to overwhelming U.S. support for Israel’s war on Hamas is not an entirely idle threat. In the intra-Democratic debate, it’s true that the continuation of the Israel-Hamas war is highly divisive for the Democratic coalition and can imperil Biden’s reelection hopes with Arab-Americans, Muslim-Americans and younger voters generally. What’s often left out of that debate is that the political risks on the other side of the equation are at least as great and probably substantially greater. These are the challenges of leading a coalition party. It’s often presented as though the political calculus with Gaza is obvious and easy. It’s not. That’s a category misunderstanding of the politics.
Behind all of this politicking is what is certainly one of the White House’s key goals: driving Netanyahu from power. The question is whether that is a goal in itself or simply a welcome byproduct of a broader shift in policy. It’s probably best seen as a distinction without a difference. He’s a problem on every front and while they would still have major disagreements with any plausible Israeli government, key parts of the current fracture are tied specifically to Netanyahu and his far right political coalition. That is part of why Benny Gantz (opposition leader-turned-wartime cabinet colleague of Netanyahu’s turned … well, that’s not clear yet) got such a lavish welcome last week for a trip to Washington that Netanyahu specifically denounced.
As I said, not really clear to me where this is going. A full suspension of offensive weaponry would be a massive move, with all sorts of implications. It’s a bit hard for me to imagine Biden is quite ready to do that. But all sorts of things seem to really be on the table.