9:54 PM: One key in this debate is that there haven’t really been many long runs into policy questions. That’s helped Trump. It’s kept him safe.
9:52 PM: How many times through this has Trump guffawed, rolled his eyes, grunted. A lot of this is about the tone, body language, attitude.
9:47 PM: This from Trump is pretty much like the stump speech he’s been giving for months. Walk down the street you get shot. Worse than a war zone. Living in hell. Trump is definitely more back on his message now. But I don’t think this is helping for the audience he’s trying to speak to.
9:42 PM: “What she doesn’t say is that tens of thousands of peep that are unbelievably happy and that love me.”
9:40 PM: Clinton shuts down snippy Trump on NAFTA: ‘You Live in Your Own Reality.‘
9:33 PM: Maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is … There’s some thermonuclear trolling here … You can see the fever brewing now. Stand back! This could get ugly. “There’s something he’s hiding …”
9:31 PM: Trump: Our whole economy is about to collapse is a fiery hell … You pathetic American losers need me.
9:27 PM: I really didn’t think Trump would get this hot and off stride so quickly. She’s even keeled. Not the greatest orator but very solid. But she looks happy and he looks angry.
9:26 PM: “You’ve been fighting ISIS you’re entire adult life?”
9:24 PM: He’s already angry and filibustering.
9:22 PM: He’s already getting hot. And we’re just 22 minutes in.
9:18 PM: She’s already getting to him.
9:16 PM: The pattern is pretty clear so far. Clinton is largely ignoring Trump’s trade policy discussion. She’s going to a discussion of taxes, trickle down, etc. And with each question she adds another taunt.
9:16 PM: “That’s called business.”
9:15 PM: Sniff, sniff.
9:13 PM: That line is pretty clearly not true from Trump. This is a good opening to get into that – how much his dad set him up, kept loaning him money.
9:11 PM: Interesting that Clinton basically let’s the trade stuff go. Goes right to a different script.
9:07 PM: Clinton basically general, aspirational; Trump goes immediately to economic nationalism, foreign governments squeezing America dry.
9:05 PM: It is beyond imagining that this is happening.
9:00 PM: Interesting what we just heard on MSNBC, that Hillary’s big goal here isn’t to convert people or convince people who don’t like her to like her. Her aim is to get her people motivated. Campaigns spin constantly. Take it as a given that nothing they say should be taken at face value. But that comment sounds true to me.
8:58 PM: Have been wondering for a while just how it goes when these two shake hands. That’s after what Trump has said about her and to a lesser extent what she’s said about him. We don’t have much precedent for that.
Great insights will soon fill this space.
I’ll say this again. I think the bigger danger for Trump is not saying something offensive or crazy. It’s getting caught out with a question he doesn’t know the answer to or doesn’t want to answer and going off on a nonsense tangent. I continue to think the national security forum from earlier this month, the Matt Lauer one, is the best guide to what to expect.
You’ll almost certainly be watching the big debate tonight. Well, watch with us. I will be live blogging in real time. And the whole TPM news team we’ll be here reporting out the details, fact-checking the fibs, grabbing the best clips. It’s all hands on deck. Join us.
One of the side avenues in the Fahrenthold blockbuster, which seems to provide good evidence Trump is evading taxes, is the name: Richard Ebers. In recent years, most of the money going into the Trump Foundation has come from Ebers – nearly $1.9 million in total. So if taxes are being evaded, most of it is on money paid to the Foundation by Ebers.
So who is Richard Ebers? He’s basically a high-end ticket scalper.
We’re still piecing the details of David Fahrenthold’s latest story at the Post. But this seems like by far his biggest get yet. He appears to have caught Trump in major tax evasion using his charity. Tax evasion on the back end, self-dealing on the front. That makes the whole entity look like a tax dodge.
Let me jump through the outline details.
We’re coming down to the wire in the 2016 election and that means we’re also coming down to the wire in our annual Prime membership drive. Suffice it to say, if you’re a regular reader of TPM and you feel like you need us, we definitely need you to become a member. It’s that simple. If you’re ready, take a moment right now. Not tonight or tomorrow, even though I know you’re busy and in the middle of something – but right now. Click here to sign up.
As long as everyone has nothing to do but perseverate over polls until tonight’s debate, I thought I’d give you a walk-through of the six national polls released today.
Monmouth: Clinton +3
Quinnipiac: Clinton +1
YouGov/Econ: Clinton +4
Bloomberg/Selzer: Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +2
Franklin Pierce: Clinton +2
Pence campaign pilot canned after news surfaces that he twice intentionally ran down pedestrians with a motor vehicle – once with a car, another time with a motorcycle. Both victims suffered serious injuries.
Definitely campaign pilot material.
As media orgs often do before a major election event, various news organizations have released a veritable storm of new polls this morning. We have five new national polls just this morning along with a number of state polls. This comes after several key polls were released yesterday. As of this moment Hillary Clinton holds a .6 percentage point lead over Donald Trump nationwide. (When I first started writing this post we had four national polls and it was Trump +.1.) Meanwhile The TPM Electoral College stands at Clinton 264, Trump 221. From yesterday that takes into account Colorado moving back into the Toss Up category from lean Clinton.