There’s an article today in the Times which reports that we may never reach ‘herd immunity’ for COVID or at least that we may not do so for a very long time. The article strikes me as needlessly alarmist, in part because the ‘news’ being reported is as much a question of semantics or people being informed about epidemiology as it is some new negative development in the course of the pandemic. The details are probably what you would expect, a mix of vaccine hesitancy, more transmissible viral strains and viral evolution that slowly chips away at vaccine immunity all working together to put ‘herd immunity’ out of reach. But I want to zoom in on the potential role of vaccine hesitancy or politics-driven resistance to vaccines.

The Atlantic has a piece by Ron Brownstein on the 2022 election and whether or not the Democrats can avoid a “wipeout”. It is, typically for Brownstein, quite good.

My worry is not that there will be a wipeout but that Republicans may have a comparatively disappointing midterm and still take control of at least the House. The mix of redistricting, the strong pattern of mid-term losses for first term Presidents and the fact that the margin is already razor thin – these all stack the deck heavily against the Democrats. Most of the article goes over different strategies Democrats are discussing and specifically the general consensus that they are better served going big on their policy agenda than trimming their sails to avoid antagonizing swing voters or Republicans.

Let me share a couple thoughts of my own on this question.

Perhaps you read it many years ago. But if not, I wanted to flag your attention to this article Sarah Posner wrote for TPM back in 2015. Yesterday we reported that Josh Duggar, one the kids from the Duggar Family of Reality TV fame and himself a one time player in hard right evangelical politics, was arrested for possession of child pornography. This followed an earlier scandal in 2015 when it was revealed that as a teenager a decade earlier he had molested his younger sisters and one other girl of the same age.

This led to the cancellation of the family’s show 19 Kids and Counting. But what was revealed in that story was that in response to the sexual abuse the family sent Josh to be ‘mentored’ by a guy named Bill Gothard at a place he founded called the Institute for Basic Life Principles. Posner calls the IBLP “an insular and authoritarian evangelical homeschooling ministry whose charismatic founder, former followers say, sexually harassed female employees, blamed rape victims for provoking their attackers, and subjected young disciples to grueling physical labor for little or no pay.” It’s a fascinating part of the Duggar backstory. But more than that it is a fascinating look into part of the world of rightwing evangelical politics where a climate of sexual repression and adulation of charismatic leaders creates its own world of sexual abuse and predation. Here’s the piece.

A new bonus episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! Today, Josh and Kate discuss the FBI raids on Rudy Giuliani’s properties and recap the events that brought us to this stunning development.

Watch below and email us your questions for next week’s episode: talk@talkingpointsmemo.com:

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

The oldest son of the Duggar family clan, Josh Duggar was indicted by a federal grand jury in Arkansas for allegedly receiving and possessing child pornography. He pleaded not guilty to the charges during his arraignment after being arrested last night by U.S. Marshals in Arkansas.

I had worried that federal prosecutors might be forced to whittle the fullness of Rudy Giuliani’s criminal conduct down to a technical violation of failure to report lobbying on behalf of a foreign entity. But reports this morning suggest his legal peril may go well beyond that. Federal investigators seem to be looking at his decision to work with Russian spies to damage Joe Biden and spread disinformation about his family and seek the ouster of the US Ambassador to Ukraine as part of the extortion plot that eventually got Trump impeached.

The former Veep is speaking at a carefully chosen podium this evening.

He’s giving his first speech post-Trump administration tonight, in a less-than-coincidental state (South Carolina) to a less-than-coincidental audience (the conservative Christian Palmetto Family Council).

This week, Josh and Kate discuss a week of actual fake news rocketing around the rightwing media ecosystem leading up to President Biden’s first big speech.

Watch below and email us your questions for next week’s episode: talk@talkingpointsmemo.com:

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Thank God it didn’t come to that. But if Derek Chauvin had been acquitted in Minneapolis federal officials were planning to arrest him at the court house on federal civil rights charges. The DOJ still plans to bring those charges against Chauvin and the three other officers involved in George Floyd’s arrest and death.

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Tim Scott had a tough job following Biden and it showed. His speech seemed premised on Biden delivering a confrontational and aggressive speech that he didn’t give. Scott seemed to argue that Biden had brought to an end some glorious era of national unity. This is absurd. I don’t think it was effective.