Congrats to @kyrstensinema. I wish her success. I’m grateful to all those who supported me in this journey. I’m inspired by Arizonans’ spirit and our state’s best days are ahead of us. pic.twitter.com/tw0uKgi3oO

— McSally For Senate (@MarthaMcSally) November 13, 2018

A few points are worth noting. Read More

Kyrsten Sinema now has a more than 35,000 vote lead over Martha McSally in the Arizona senate race. It seems hard to see how she doesn’t win the election. But don’t miss a key down-ballot race. Katie Hobbs (D) has now opened up a 3,645 lead over Steve Gaynor (R) in the Secretary of State’s race. Hobbs looks to be in the stronger position but unlike the Senate race, but this one isn’t done. Given what is likely to be Arizona’s key role in 2020, having a Secretary of State who supports voting rights is a big deal.

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Gallup is out with its weekly Trump approval number today and he’s down at 38% approval, 56% disapproval. That’s one of his lowest numbers all year. Polls go up and down of course. But there’s a point I want to make that goes beyond what appears to be Trump’s permanent ping-ponging between 36% and 42% public approval. Put simply, I doubt it will be an accident or momentary that President Trump’s support goes down post-election. Partisanship is a heavy constraining force on public support in this era. Read More

In two days, TPM will celebrate 18 years of continuous publication.

I thought I would observe the centenary of the end of World War I and Veterans’ Day with a book recommendation: The Vanquished: Why the First World War Failed to End. This is a powerful, deeply important book. Today we are observing the century since the armistice that ended the First World War. But this anniversary obscures a reality this book explores with great depth and hideous illumination. In the West, mainly for England, France, and Belgium, the war took a catastrophic toll. But it was conducted largely within accepted distinctions between combatants and civilians. Just as importantly it ended with a rapid and full transition from war to peace, hostilities to demobilization. The history is dramatically different the further we look to the east. Read More

Alexander Malkevich runs an outfit called USA Really, a kind of Russia Today/RT on steroids, basically a Russian-financed news operation the aim of which is to portray the USA as in a state of tumult and chaos. Admittedly this is probably an easier case to make than it might have been in the past. Needless to say, Malkevich, a Russian national is an epic Trump. Here’s how McClatchy described it in June … Read More

Here’s one notable side note to the Arizona Senate contest, which now seems very likely to end with Kyrsten Sinema as Sen-Elect.

Martha McSally has very conspicuously not gone the route of Rick Scott in Florida. She’s not claiming the election is being stolen or making allegations of voter fraud. She’s basically letting the counting go on.  That has reportedly angered national Republicans who want her to do just that. Good for her. But it’s important to note that McSally’s interests are really not aligned with those of the national party. Read More

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