A few thoughts. The

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April 3, 2003 9:46 a.m.

A few thoughts. The chemical weapons issue is really becoming acute. CNN’s Walt Rodgers is doing amazing reporting this morning with the 3-7th Cavalry, speeding toward the outskirts of Baghdad. Earlier this morning he reported seeing many dead Iraqis that his armored column was leaving in its wake as it pushed ahead. According to Rodgers, they were all wearing gas masks — if not actually donned than at least at their side. Presumably that means the Iraqis are prepared and ready to use chemicals at any moment.

The question that arises is basically a political one for the Iraqis. Once they use chemicals, if they do, they will not only lose a lot of ground in the propaganda war in the Arab world and even more in Europe, they will also confirm a lot of the rationale for American action. So, for them, it must be a difficult calculation. If they have hopes of dragging this out in a guerrilla war or some urban fighting then you’d expect they wouldn’t do it — it would be counterproductive, since they believe they have some hope of eventually wearing America down and turning world opinion further against us. On the other hand, if they think they’re on the verge of complete collapse — which looks like a distinct possibility — then they may be in ‘go down in blaze of glory’ mode.

Now, for what’s coming next, be sure to read two key pieces today. The lead editorial in today’s Washington Post and this article by Jane Perlez in the Times. The Post’s editorial page has long been pretty friendly to the neo-con-Iraqi National Congress axis, so their note of caution on post-war plans merits considerable attention. Perlez’s piece gives fascinating background on Iraq’s government-in-waiting, currently kickin’ it in Kuwait. Three candidates are now in the running to administer the occupation government: the UN/international community, the United States government, and the American Enterprise Institute. At the moment, candidate #1 is at least a lap behind the other two, and candidate #2 is already starting to wheeze. AEI … well, they look like their just gettin’ their stride.

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