A new study co-authored by political science professors and a policy analyst from the think tank Demos finds that Donald Trump’s electoral college victory in November depended heavily on an increase in white voter turnout and an even bigger decrease in turnout among African-American voters—particularly in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Comparing data from the voter file vendor Catalist and the U.S. Census Bureau, the researchers concluded: “Without those shifts in turnout from various racial and ethnic groups, these pivotal states might have gone not to Trump but to Clinton — giving Clinton an electoral college victory.”
The study, published Monday in the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, found that between 2012 and 2016, white voter turnout jumped 2.4 percent nationally, while black voter turnout fell 4.7 percent.
The split was even more dramatic in the midwestern states that tipped the scales for Trump. In Ohio, black voter turnout dropped 7.5 percent; in Wisconsin, it declined 12.3 percent; and in Michigan, it was down 12.4 percent.
That trend extends beyond the midwest, the study found, as white voter turnout surged 4 points while black voter turnout fell by 4 points in the critical swing state of Florida. Trump carried Florida by a narrow margin of just 1.2 points.
Had every demographic turned out to the polls in 2016 at the same rates they had in 2012, the researchers determined, Hillary Clinton would be sitting in the White House today.
The moral of this story is voter suppression works.
Could it have been different if the dems had run the civil rights activist instead and if John Lewis had acknowledged his work? Maybe next time, eh.
A few % decrease is not plummeting. A return to very high turnout instead of the extremely high turnout of the last election is not plummeting. Black people turned out in insane numbers in 2012 to assure Obama victory in the face of the racist backlash his election triggered. It’s never going to be that high again. Fuck anyone who even hints at blaming us for this surge in white supremacist politics.
A combination of (a) vote suppression and (b) too many liberals being useful idiots for the GOP.
Bernie lost the primary by not competing for Black votes. And he lost it months before the thing with Lewis. The idea that he’d get more Black votes in the general than the woman who got 80%+ of Black votes in the primary is dumb.