Q Poll: All Tied Up In Pennsylvania Dem Senate Primary

A new poll of likely Pennsylvania Senate primary voters released by Quinnipiac University this morning shows Democrats evenly split between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, with 14% still undecided in the contest less than a week before the May 18 primary. Though the poll confirms Sestak’s momentum in the late days of the primary, it also suggests voters are still deciding who to vote for — nearly 30% respondents to the poll who said they had chosen a candidate also said they were still open to changing their minds.

The Q poll, which was conduced May 5-10 among 945 likely Democratic voters, shows Specter ahead of Sestak by a margin of 44-42. The margin of error is 3.2%.

The current TPM Poll Average for the contest shows Specter ahead by a margin of 44.6-41.0.The new poll is the latest to show Sestak closing fast on Specter. The April 7 Q poll of the primary showed a 53-32 Specter lead. As recently as May 4, Specter was still ahead in the Q poll by a comfortable margin of 47-39.

But Specter still has plenty of room to come back, with 14% of Democratic voters saying they’re still undecided.

Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown said that though Sestak clearly has the momentum, it might be too early to count Specter out entirely.

“Arlen Specter has a history of winning close elections and he’ll need that to continue because his once commanding lead is gone,” he said. “His margin over Sestak is too close to call.”