Top Democrats in Washington wish their big electoral defeat Tuesday hadn’t been followed by a divisive leadership fight in the House. But that’s what happened Friday when, minutes after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she would run to be the Dems’ Minority Leader, her vote-counter James Clyburn announced he would run for Minority Whip, touching off a leadership race between himself and Steny Hoyer.
Over the weekend, both men and their allies worked the phones relentlessly to shore up support. But publicly, the two camps picked very different strategies for managing public expectations of the outcome. Team Hoyer has been working the media, rolling out ever-longer lists of members who’ve publicly committed to backing their guy.
“Hoyer’s going to win,” one source close to Hoyer told TPM.
Clyburn’s camp, by contrast has been much quieter — lowering expectations to the degree that they’re trying to set them at all. (On MSNBC this morning, Clyburn called himself the underdog in the fight.)
Dems hope to have it all sorted out this week — and the sooner the better. Members and aides, including outgoing DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, have suggested that the race will end without a divisive vote, and both men will remain in leadership. Hoyer’s allies would like to see an orderly transition downward: Hoyer from Majority Leader to Whip; and Clyburn from Whip to Conference Chair.
That would put the squeeze on the current conference chair John Larson, who’d either have to step down from leadership or run against his own lieutenant, Xavier Becerra, to remain at the table.
Meanwhile, Pelosi herself is keeping her cards very close to the vest. Historically she hasn’t had the greatest relationship with Hoyer — but she certainly didn’t intervene to stop the challenge. However, tellingly, a number of her close allies have backed Hoyer in this race. One Democratic legislator (who predicts that Hoyer will win) points to those allies — Ed Markey (MA) and Jerrold Nadler (NY) — as evidence that Pelosi tacitly backs Hoyer.
Larson’s office wasn’t immediately available over the weekend — but as for whether he’ll get bumped, the lawmaker we spoke to thinks it would be hard for Clyburn to pivot and take on Larson. About Larson, the legislator added, “He hasn’t called to sound the alarm.”
