The super-PAC tasked with keeping the House in GOP hands is making a big bet on what the House map will look like this fall, plunking down $48 million in advertising reservations across 30 districts.
The Congressional Leadership Fund’s reservations include $38 million for TV ads in the 20 districts the group seemingly sees as the most likely to decide the House majority next fall, as well as an additional $10 million on digital ads spread across 30 districts.
The list mostly follows most prognosticators’ views of which districts are vulnerable, and groups can always change early reservations and add other targets. But the list is notable for who’s on there — as well as who was left out.
One name that’s glaringly missing from the robust list: Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA), a very vulnerable member in a Democratic-trending Northern Virginia district. Reps. Rod Blum (R-IA) and Jason Lewis (R-MN), two other members in tough swing districts viewed as vulnerable by strategists in both parties, also didn’t make the cut. The group also didn’t commit any early resources to open seats vacated by retiring Reps. Darrel Issa (R-CA) and Ed Royce (D-CA) that Democrats have been bullish about picking up.
On the flip side, the group shows it’s legitimately concerned about holding a pair of Kansas House seats by reserving nearly $3 million to protect Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS) and a GOP-leaning open seat in the state, as well as protecting Reps. Andy Barr (R-KY) and Tom MacArthur (R-NJ).
The reservations come about a month after the House Majority PAC, the group’s Democratic counterpart, plunked down $43 million in its own early bets.
“CLF’s historic and aggressive fundraising pace has allowed us to place larger advertising buys earlier than ever,” CLF Executive Director Corry Bliss said in a statement. “Today’s announcement demonstrates CLF’s continued commitment to doing things differently. By reserving advertising early, investing unprecedented resources in digital, and running the country’s only House-focused national field program, CLF is prepared to lead the way in defending the House Republican majority.”
Here’s the full reservation list as provided by the group:
Television Reservations ($38 million in 20 districts)
- CA-10 (Denham), $2.35 million
- CA-25 (Knight), $2.1 million
- CA-45 (Walters), $2.3 million
- CO-06 (Coffman), $2.3 million
- FL-26 (Curbelo), $1.67 million
- IL-12 (Bost), $2 million
- KS-02 (Open), $1.25 million
- KS-03 (Yoder), $1.7 million
- KY-06 (Barr), $1.8 million
- ME-02 (Poliquin), $1.2 million
- MI-08 (Bishop), $2.2 million
- MN-03 (Paulsen), $2.3 million
- MN-08 (Open), $2.6 million
- NE-02 (Bacon), $1.6 million
- NJ-03 (MacArthur), $1.4 million
- NY-22 (Tenney), $900,000
- PA-01 (Fitzpatrick) $1.4 million
- TX-07 (Culberson), $2.45 million
- TX-23 (Hurd), $2.1 million
- WA-08 (Open), $2.1 million
Digital Spending ($10 million in 30 Districts)
- CA-10 (Denham)
- CA-21 (Valadao)
- CA-25 (Knight)
- CA-45 (Walters)
- CO-06 (Coffman)
- FL-18 (Mast)
- FL-26 (Curbelo)
- IA-01 (Blum)
- IL-06 (Roskam)
- IL-12 (Bost)
- KS-02 (Open)
- KS-03 (Yoder)
- KY-06 (Barr)
- ME-02 (Poliquin)
- MI-08 (Bishop)
- MN-03 (Paulsen)
- MN-08 (Open)
- NC-13 (Budd)
- NE-02 (Bacon)
- NJ-03 (MacArthur)
- NJ-07 (Lance)
- NY-22 (Tenney)
- NY-24 (Katko)
- PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
- PA-17 (Rothfus)
- TX-07 (Culberson)
- TX-23 (Hurd)
- VA-02 (Taylor)
- WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers)
- WA-08 (Open)
