GOP Group Makes $48M Bet To Protect House Majority With Early Ad Reservations

on March 6, 2018 in Washington, DC.
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), (C), speaks to the media while flanked by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), (R), and House Majority Whip, Steve Scalise (R-LA) (L), after a meeti... WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), (C), speaks to the media while flanked by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), (R), and House Majority Whip, Steve Scalise (R-LA) (L), after a meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill, on March 6, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images) MORE LESS
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The super-PAC tasked with keeping the House in GOP hands is making a big bet on what the House map will look like this fall, plunking down $48 million in advertising reservations across 30 districts.

The Congressional Leadership Fund’s reservations include $38 million for TV ads in the 20 districts the group seemingly sees as the most likely to decide the House majority next fall, as well as an additional $10 million on digital ads spread across 30 districts.

The list mostly follows most prognosticators’ views of which districts are vulnerable, and groups can always change early reservations and add other targets. But the list is notable for who’s on there — as well as who was left out.

One name that’s glaringly missing from the robust list: Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA), a very vulnerable member in a Democratic-trending Northern Virginia district. Reps. Rod Blum (R-IA) and Jason Lewis (R-MN), two other members in tough swing districts viewed as vulnerable by strategists in both parties, also didn’t make the cut. The group also didn’t commit any early resources to open seats vacated by retiring Reps. Darrel Issa (R-CA) and Ed Royce (D-CA) that Democrats have been bullish about picking up.

On the flip side, the group shows it’s legitimately concerned about holding a pair of Kansas House seats by reserving nearly $3 million to protect Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS) and a GOP-leaning open seat in the state, as well as protecting Reps. Andy Barr (R-KY) and Tom MacArthur (R-NJ).

The reservations come about a month after the House Majority PAC, the group’s Democratic counterpart, plunked down $43 million in its own early bets.

“CLF’s historic and aggressive fundraising pace has allowed us to place larger advertising buys earlier than ever,” CLF Executive Director Corry Bliss said in a statement. “Today’s announcement demonstrates CLF’s continued commitment to doing things differently. By reserving advertising early, investing unprecedented resources in digital, and running the country’s only House-focused national field program, CLF is prepared to lead the way in defending the House Republican majority.”

Here’s the full reservation list as provided by the group:

Television Reservations ($38 million in 20 districts)

  1. CA-10 (Denham), $2.35 million
  2. CA-25 (Knight), $2.1 million
  3. CA-45 (Walters), $2.3 million
  4. CO-06 (Coffman), $2.3 million
  5. FL-26 (Curbelo), $1.67 million
  6. IL-12 (Bost), $2 million
  7. KS-02 (Open), $1.25 million
  8. KS-03 (Yoder), $1.7 million
  9. KY-06 (Barr), $1.8 million
  10. ME-02 (Poliquin), $1.2 million
  11. MI-08 (Bishop), $2.2 million
  12. MN-03 (Paulsen), $2.3 million
  13. MN-08 (Open), $2.6 million
  14. NE-02 (Bacon), $1.6 million
  15. NJ-03 (MacArthur), $1.4 million
  16. NY-22 (Tenney), $900,000
  17. PA-01 (Fitzpatrick) $1.4 million
  18. TX-07 (Culberson), $2.45 million
  19. TX-23 (Hurd), $2.1 million
  20. WA-08 (Open), $2.1 million

Digital Spending ($10 million in 30 Districts)

  1. CA-10 (Denham)
  2. CA-21 (Valadao)
  3. CA-25 (Knight)
  4. CA-45 (Walters)
  5. CO-06 (Coffman)
  6. FL-18 (Mast)
  7. FL-26 (Curbelo)
  8. IA-01 (Blum)
  9. IL-06 (Roskam)
  10. IL-12 (Bost)
  11. KS-02 (Open)
  12. KS-03 (Yoder)
  13. KY-06 (Barr)
  14. ME-02 (Poliquin)
  15. MI-08 (Bishop)
  16. MN-03 (Paulsen)
  17. MN-08 (Open)
  18. NC-13 (Budd)
  19. NE-02 (Bacon)
  20. NJ-03 (MacArthur)
  21. NJ-07 (Lance)
  22. NY-22 (Tenney)
  23. NY-24 (Katko)
  24. PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
  25. PA-17 (Rothfus)
  26. TX-07 (Culberson)
  27. TX-23 (Hurd)
  28. VA-02 (Taylor)
  29. WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers)
  30. WA-08 (Open)
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Notable Replies

  1. Keep wasting your money, Republicans. The GOP should be spending their ill gotten gains on flotation devices to keep themselves breathing after the blue tsunami takes them out.

  2. Avatar for joey joey says:

    So if a super competitive district is not on this list, is that a hint at the possibility that the GOP bigwigs are conceding it?

    Honestly, the rational thing for them to do would probably be to concede about a dozen top-tier races and just defend the next most defensible dozen. It’s a long way from a few pickups to a change in control of the house, and as long as they hold Democrats below the magic number (i.e. about two dozen), they keep control.

    But is the internal politics of the R coalition such that they can really throw their most vulnerable incumbents under the bus like that?

  3. On behalf of the lamestream media, thank you for your business, conservatives.

    Remember, it’s your money. Well, was.

    Now it’s ours.

  4. Desperate people do desperate things.

  5. Does Digital Spending refer to vote hacking or Russian troll farms?

    Asking for a friend…

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

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