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From The Reporter’s Notebook
In a press conference Thursday afternoon, President Barack Obama dismissed the recent furor over a $400 million payment from the United States to Iran, saying that the settlement “wasn’t some nefarious deal” and instead addressing pessimistic predictions about the deal’s effectiveness, TPM’s Esme Cribb reported. “Why not have some of these folks who were predicting disaster say, you know what, this thing actually worked,” Obama said. “Now that would be a shock. That would be impressive.”
Agree or Disagree?
Josh Marshall: “I am not saying this is the nightmare scenario for the Republicans. But this is what it looks like. A cratering Trump campaign that pulls vulnerable and even not so vulnerable Republicans down with him, almost certainly ending the GOP’s senate majority and conceivably endangering the House majority as well. The senate situation in Pennsylvania is more ambiguous. Among likely voters, Pat Toomey is only one point behind McGinty, more or less where the race has been. But among registered voters, he’s back 8 points. When a pollster provides a likely voter screen we use that number. But the large discrepancy suggests that in a high turnout election, Toomey could be in a perilous position. Again, this is just a hint, a one day snapshot at a particularly bad moment. But a situation like this a bit later in the Fall is the GOP nightmare scenario.”
Say What?!
“Honestly, I am tempted to just say I don’t support any of you people ever.”
– Sean Hannity had some strong words for GOP leadership.
BUZZING: Today in the Hive
From a TPM Prime member: “The betting odds are inherently averaged, and represent a very large sample, I would think. The number of bets on a given choice affect the offered payout odds, and the combination of bets being placed and the odds being adjusted smooths the result. The majority of bets are solidly on Clinton, but the odds drift back and forth by small degrees. A few months ago it seems Trump was considered a bit of a long shot, but as he became the solid GOP choice, the bettors are splitting but still well in the Clinton column at 56.33%. The odds shifted very slightly toward Trump during the GOP convention, but have begun moving back in Clinton’s direction now.”
Related: A poll released Thursday showed Clinton surging to a 15-point lead nationwide.
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