What Latest Polling Says About The Mood In Ukraine—And The Desire To Keep Fighting

KYIV, UKRAINE - OCTOBER 1: Ukrainian people observe a minute of silence on the Day of memory of fallen heroes on the central square of Kyiv on October 1, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Each little flag represents a fallen so... KYIV, UKRAINE - OCTOBER 1: Ukrainian people observe a minute of silence on the Day of memory of fallen heroes on the central square of Kyiv on October 1, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Each little flag represents a fallen soldier. People, cars and municipal transport stopped their movement for a minute at 9am to honor the memory of fallen heroes. (Photo by Libkos/Getty Images) MORE LESS
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This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

Ukrainians have endured war for nearly two years. Since the Russian invasion of Feb. 24, 2022, more than 6.3 million Ukrainians have fled the country, while an estimated 3.7 million are internally displaced.

The war has had damaging geopolitical and ecological consequences. But it is ordinary Ukrainians, those who stayed to endure and fight, who experience its strains and horrors daily.

As the war enters its third year, what is the mood among these Ukrainians? As a political geographer who has worked with colleagues on surveys in the region for years, I know that measuring public opinion in wartime Ukraine presents many challenges.

Nearly 1 in 4 Ukrainians have had to move from their homes. And while the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line has largely stabilized, missile and drone attacks are a daily occurrence. Patriotic feelings are high, and so also is distrust, especially in places formerly occupied by Russia.

Most public opinion research today in Ukraine is conducted by telephone interview. Survey companies make calls to randomly selected functioning numbers and ask citizens over the age of 18 to participate.

Response rates can be low. Nonetheless, survey companies manage through persistence.

The latest survey by the National Democratic Institute released on Jan. 26 provides insight into how Ukrainians are coping. Administered by the reputable Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, this telephone survey recorded the views of 2,516 Ukrainians from Nov. 14-22, 2023. Four findings stand out:

1. Costs in lives and mental health are high

Since the outset of the war, the National Democratic Institute has asked Ukrainians if they have experienced the loss of family and friends from the war. In May 2022, one-fifth of respondents indicated that they had. In November 2023, almost half said they had lost loved ones, with higher rates among middle-aged and young respondents.

The mental health costs to Ukrainians of war are considerable. Many are forced to flee to shelters at all hours. Almost three-quarters of women and half of male respondents report a deterioration of their mental health, according to the latest poll.

Lack of sleep is the single largest reported health cost of the war. But lost income, deteriorating physical health and family separation are also commonly reported.

Any post-war Ukraine will be a society where significant parts of the population are living with physical and mental disabilities. Human rehabilitation needs are already considerable and will grow.

2. More Ukrainians are willing to negotiate

Since the war began, the National Democratic Institute survey has asked if Ukraine should engage in negotiations with Russia to try to achieve peace.

A majority (59%) said yes just a few months into the war in May 2022. But, by August 2022, in the wake of accumulating Russian assaults and alleged war crimes, sentiment had flipped with a majority against. By January 2023, the share of those in favor had dropped 30 points to a low of just 29%.

Since then, this percentage has climbed upward. In November 2023, it rebounded to 42%.

As it stands, the majority of Ukrainians are opposed to seeking negotiations with Russia. Talks, in any case, are not on the agenda. In the current war climate, there appears little prospect of negotiations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia at a time when it is deepening the militarization of the state, economy and society.

Academic research, largely based on the U.S. experience since World War II, suggests that as casualties increase, public support for war declines.

Wars of defense against an invasion appear to be different, with greater public tolerance of loss because the conflict is perceived as necessary and just.

But as Ukraine drives to recruit 450,000 to 500,000 new soldiers to replace its fallen and wounded, this proposition will be significantly tested.

3. Resistance to land concessions continue

From the outset of the war, Ukrainians have been surveyed to elicit what they would accept as the price of peace. The question is difficult for Ukrainians who rightly feel victimized.

Research by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology since the outset of the war reveals overwhelming sentiment among Ukrainians against territorial concessions for immediate peace.

My own research with social psychologist Karina Korostelina in front-line southeastern Ukrainian cities revealed the overwhelming belief that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is sacred.

But so too, of course, is human life. Ukrainians are understandably divided over what should be prioritized: preserving territory or preserving lives.

Wartime experiences also matter. Earlier research suggested that those most affected by the war through displacement and most concerned about their immediate security are more likely to prioritize a cease-fire.

Russia occupies approximately 18% of Ukraine today, a figure composed of territories it controlled before February 2022 (Crimea and the Donbas) and territories it subsequently seized and retained. Some, but not much, territory has shifted hands this last year.

To most Ukrainians, it is unacceptable to hold only the territory it currently controls as the price for peace – 71% strongly reject this, another 13% less strongly in the survey.

Only 12% see peace based on current territorial control as acceptable.

Meanwhile, a majority declare it is fully unacceptable to return to the pre-2022 borders. Slim majorities also say it is unacceptable that Ukraine renounces its aspirations to join NATO and the European Union as the price of peace.

These attitudes restrain Ukraine’s leadership, as U.S. officials signal that they do not foresee Ukraine retaking lost territory in 2024. Right now, it is safer politically to fight than confront an ugly peace.

4. Ukrainians expect a long war but remain optimistic

Ukrainians do not think the conflict will end any time soon, with 43% saying that war will go on for an additional 12 months, at least. A third responded that they simply do not know when the conflict will end.

In May 2022, just a few months into the conflict, 1 in 4 Ukrainians thought the war would end within three months. In November 2023, only 3% had that expectation.

War, paradoxically, generated a surge of optimism about Ukraine’s future as Ukrainians processed suffering into hope. That sentiment remained high in November 2023, with 77% of respondents saying they were optimistic about the country’s future, though fewer Ukrainians said that they were “very optimistic.” Data on this important metric in 2024 will be revealing.

The desire to resist

Ukraine war fatigue is growing among the country’s Western backers. But no group is more tired of this war than Ukrainians. The costs being paid by ordinary Ukrainians are enormous in terms of lives lost, settlements destroyed, environments poisoned and futures compromised.

And these costs come across in public opinion surveys. But so too does an enduring desire to have their war resistance mean something, to have it affirm Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.

The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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  1. My opinion is America should be sending EVERYTHING Ukraine needs to beat the snot out of the Russians

  2. Avatar for noonm noonm says:

    The core problem to any ‘negotiation’.

    Putin will likely require keeping at least the pre-2022 territory and a prohibition of joining NATO as a condition for a peace treaty. Both are wholly unacceptable to the Ukrainian people.

  3. 100% of GQP surveyed said “Putin should win”

    Biden’s biggest failure was not sending everything possible in the first year of the war, now no aid will be sent unless the Dems win back both parts of Congress.

  4. Avatar for noonm noonm says:

    Biden did.

    This ‘Ukraine aid’ bill is not really going to Ukraine as much as it’s going to US defense material manufacturers to build the weapons Ukraine has found most success with from what we’ve sent them. Those manufacturers basically need a guarentee that at least the US military will buy whatever they can produce to justify the significant investments in greater manufacturing capacity that is required.

    This is what is so frustrating about Republican opposition. The money won’t really be going to Ukraine, but defense contractors often in their own districts. They are literally forgoing jobs and economic growth in their districts to help Putin win.

  5. Avatar for dave48 dave48 says:

    What most people don’t understand about war, especially a war like this, is that, as the war drags on and more people are killed, the invading side has less chance of “winning” anything.

    Imagine you’re living in the country that’s been invaded by a superior power. In the beginning, you might consider just letting the invading country win because you might be more concerned about your home or the fate of your family than you are about who is running the government.

    Now imagine that, as the war progresses, your family is killed or your home is destroyed. At this point, not only do you have less to lose by fighting, you will probably blame the invading country for your loss and will stop at nothing to drive them out.

    This is why military superiority alone can’t win a war. If the invading country can’t force a quick surrender, they’re not only unlikely to win, they’re less likely to win with each shot they fire or neighborhood they bomb.

    Asking how many people the Russians have to kill before Ukraine surrenders is a bit like asking how many times do you need to hit a hornets’ nest with a stick before the hornets give up and leave you alone.

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

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