Win or lose, tomorrow night’s result in NY-26 will be devastating to Ryan Medicare Phase Out plan.

Tomorrow is the first big special election of the post-2010 political environment. And Medicare is the specter haunting Republicans in New York’s 26th congressional district.

As you know it’s a three way race between a Republican, a Dem and a Tea Party candidate in what is normally a pretty Republican district — NY-26. The latest polls show a close race but with Democrat Kathy Hochul opening up a lead. Siena came out with a poll over the weekend that showed a four point spread. And a poll out today from PPP shows a 6 point spread. Just as important both polls show the Tea Party candidate’s support dropping fast while Hochul takes the lead — suggesting this is not simply a matter of a split Republican field giving the Dem an opportunity.

And here’s the key point: the race has revolved overwhelmingly around Medicare. Read More