Tomorrow is the first big special election of the post-2010 political environment. And Medicare is the specter haunting Republicans in New York’s 26th congressional district.
As you know it’s a three way race between a Republican, a Dem and a Tea Party candidate in what is normally a pretty Republican district — NY-26. The latest polls show a close race but with Democrat Kathy Hochul opening up a lead. Siena came out with a poll over the weekend that showed a four point spread. And a poll out today from PPP shows a 6 point spread. Just as important both polls show the Tea Party candidate’s support dropping fast while Hochul takes the lead — suggesting this is not simply a matter of a split Republican field giving the Dem an opportunity.
And here’s the key point: the race has revolved overwhelmingly around Medicare.
Republican Corwin first embraced the Ryan phase-out plan but it’s clear been an albatross around her neck. She’s even resorted to attacking Hochul over not promising clearly enough that she won’t cut Medicare. And over the weekend she’s even suggesting she might not support the Ryan phase-out plan after all. There’s been a lot of spin and politicking on both sides. But this is the first real political test. It’s far from clear who will win tomorrow night. It’s a Republican district and three way races are notoriously hard to poll three way races. But it seems clear that the Republican will at least have a run for her life on her hands and there’s probably better than 50-50 odds she’ll lose. And it seems clear that it will be because Medicare Phase Out was lethal or nearly so, even in a strong Republican district.
And remember: the vote on the Ryan plan already happened. And all but six House Republicans voted for it.
