The first poll of New Hampshire that includes some survey data collected after the Iowa caucuses showed only slight movement in the race there between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The University of Massachusetts-Lowell tracking poll released Wednesday still shows Sanders with nearly twice the level of support of Clinton.
In the three-day tracking poll, which included responses taken from the day before, of and after Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a whisper, 61 percent of respondents supported Sanders, while only 32 percent supported Clinton. This indicates only a very slight tightening of the race since the previous day’s results (covering the preceding three-day period), which showed support for Sanders at 63 percent and Clinton at 30 percent.
In the wake of the extremely close Iowa results, all eyes have turned to New Hampshire, where Sanders has been dominating in the polls for most of the fall and winter. These results are consistent with polling suggesting a wide margin for Sanders in the state. However, nationwide polling shows Clinton the overall favorite in the Democratic race. Polling in Nevada, the next Democratic contest after New Hampshire, has been very limited.
The UMass-Lowell tracking poll, sponsored by 7News, surveyed 415 likely Democratic primary voters by live telephone interviews. The margin of error was 5.4 percentage points.
Hillary is the best one! If Bernie’s message was actually going to get done, why has it not happened after his 25 years in the Senate? She is is the one with the skill and knowledge to get the job done. Compromise will be required and SHE can do it!
Hillary’s only plausible strategy in NH is to spend the next week lowering expectations to the point where if she gets ANY votes all, it’s an unexpected over-perform. Not sure how she can accomplish that, since the polls are consistent and well-known, but she can jawbone it some, pay tribute to Bernie as a virtual favorite son, and hope she gets a little sympathy flowing her way while at the same time discouraging Bernie supporters from wasting their time voting when the outcome is assured.
NH Primary is virtually on Bernie Sanders’ home turf – very favorable demographics for him and right next door to Vermont. It’s his to lose.
For once, a non-clickbait headline! Hurrah!
Indeed. And in terms of media narrative, it could easily go the opposite way from Iowa, in the sense that even if Bernie wins, Hillary could walk off with the winning narrative if she can keep it close. And in this case, she doesn’t even need to achieve a near-tie, she could conceivably lose by 5 or 6 points and still sell it as a “big win.”
But if he beats her by double digits, the best spin her campaign can put on it is that NH doesn’t really matter, because it’s Bernie’s home turf, and because it’s demographically unlike most of the upcoming battleground states. Which is a perfectly good argument, but obviously not as good as that argument, combined with a much-closer-than-anticipated outcome.