Donald Trump comes out ahead by five points in the latest Emerson College poll, surveying likely Iowa voters.
Trump polled ahead of Hillary Clinton, 44-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein holding 1 percent.
This latest poll shifted TPM’s PollTracker Average for Iowa from a tossup to a right lean.
The most recent poll of likely Iowa voters, from CBS/YouGov, showed a tie between the two major party candidates at 40 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 2 percent. Emerson College has not previously polled Iowa voters.
This poll was conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 1 via automated calls to landlines only, among 600 likely Iowa general election voters. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.
TPM’s PollTracker Average for the Iowa presidential election shows Trump leading Clinton, 44 to 39.1.
“via automated calls to landlines only”
A totally invalid random sampling in the year 2016, when 1/2 of people under 40 have no landlines, or are never home long enough, never answer landline phones without screening them first, or just let the voice mail answering kick-in to screen the callers from the “automated calls to landlines only”.
Emerson College, one of the worst records of inaccurate polling due to improper, unscientific sampling techniques. It’s about time Emerson College got back to basics: graduating people trained as talk radio hosts and TV weatherpersons.
Iowa has never been friendly to Hillary Clinton, for whatever reason, and it has seemed like the least secure swing state. Although I get that this poll in particular seems week, I refuse to unskew polls generally. What is interesting, however, is that there are a lot of undecideds even with the third party candidates included. I am guessing that this poll reflects Republicans coming home to Trump (with his “ceiling” apparently being something well less than 50% of voters) but some Democrats or Democratic leaning voters still holding out on Clinton. But the biggest bummer is that it does not bode well for unseating the practically senile Grassley, which was always a long shot.
Look at those lines. For heaven’s sake, who are the people who haven’t decided yet? Get a brain, Morans!
Who cares? It’s Iowa, not California or New York. Furthermore, the election will be decided after the first debate.“Thoughtful” fence-sitters (yes, I know, an oxymoron at this point) will see him flounder in a real debate rather than the name-calling contest that were the GOP primary debates.