A series of polls of the first three Democratic presidential primary contests, shows Iowa remains the tightest of the bunch.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist telephone poll showed support for Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters at 48 percent, just ahead of Bernie Sander’s 45 percent.
Recent polls of Iowa Democrats have produced varied results, with a majority showing Sanders in the lead but with no consensus emerging as to how wide that advantage is, and a substantial minority showing a slight lead for Clinton.
Sanders leads Clinton by 57 percent to 38 percent in New Hampshire, one of the widest margins recorded by any poll of the state’s Democrats and a huge increase in Sanders’ lead since the early-January NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, which showed him leading Clinton only 50 percent to 46 percent. Although New Hampshire polling, too, has produced considerable variations, a clear trend has emerged over the last month pointing to a strong Sanders lead.
In South Carolina, 64 percent of respondents intend to support Clinton, compared to 27 percent for Sanders. This is the first NBC/WSJ/Marist poll to survey South Carolina, but the results are consistent with nearly all other polling for the state, which has favored Clinton throughout the fall and winter even as the challenge against her in Iowa and New Hampshire has become stronger.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted by live telephone interviews. The Iowa poll was carried out from Jan. 24-26, surveying 426 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points. The South Carolina and New Hampshire polls were carried out from January 17-23. In New Hampshire, 568 likely voters were surveyed with margin of error of 4.1 percentage points, while in South Carolina 446 likely Democratic voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
Correction: This post mistakenly gave the wrong numbers and wrong leader for the Iowa poll. It also gave an incorrect number for Clinton in New Hampshire. We regret the errors.
Funny how the urge is always to downplay any advantage Hillary. Hopefully if she wins IA, the “trouble for Hillary” meme will take a vacation.
These GD polls and the reports on them are as bad as folks that watch the stock market, and talk and worry about their money everyday!
In udda woids, they’re too close to separate, according to this poll, and yesterday’s poll, which showed Sanders ahead within the MOE.
I agree with you, Ralph. Nate Silver is the first to say, though, that it’s near impossible to predict primaries, and even more impossible to predict Iowa. That said, he’s pretty confident.