TPM Polltracker

The end may be near for Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, barring a huge surprise on Election Day.

A new poll by the University of Arkansas shows Republican Tom Cotton with a commanding 13-point lead among "very likely voters" in the state.

Cotton led Pryor by a 49-36 percent margin, well outside the margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.1 percentage points.

Fifteen percent didn't support either or didn't know.

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Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has a small lead in the Louisiana Senate jungle primary, but will likely lose to Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) in a December runoff, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday.

Among likely voters, 36 percent supported Landrieu, 35 percent supported Cassidy and 11 percent supported Tea Party candidate Rob Maness. Yet in a match-up between just Landrieu and Cassidy, Cassidy had a 7 point lead over Landrieu, though 11 percent of voters say they're undecided in a head-to-head contest.

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A new Monmouth University poll released Monday refutes a previous poll's finding that the race for U.S. Senate in North Carolina between House Speaker Thom Tillis and Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is tied. Instead, the new poll finds what most other recent polls have shown —that Hagan holds a small lead.

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