Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has a two point lead over Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) among likely voters in the Iowa Senate race, according to an NBC/Marist poll released Sunday.
Among likely voters, 46 percent said they would support Ernst while just 44 percent said they would support Braley. Yet among registered voters, 44 percent said they would support Ernst and 45 percent said they would back Braley.
The Iowa Senate race has remained close, though Braley lost an early lead over Ernst. Since September, multiple polls have shown Ernst leading Braley.
In a Des Moines Register poll last week, Ernst had a six point lead over Braley among likely voters.
According to TPM’s Polltracker average, Ernst has a 3.5 point lead over Braley.
NBC surveyed 778 likely voters and 1,093 registered voters Sept. 27-Oct. 1 with an overall margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
I’d totally defer to Iowa correspondents on this one, but my gut feeling on this is that she loses and Braley squeaks by. In a decision likely to be driven by GOTV, the louder his crew screams about her extremism, the more likely Braley’s victory.
I doubt Ernst will be able to ride in under the radar like Deb Fischer in NE although they hold the same backwards positions. Ernst will crash land on the runway under the hot lights of the final month, like Plain.
I have a feeling this is going to be yet another election where the “likely voter” screen makes the polling less accurate.
Tpm is also using polling from Gravis Marketing whose google results are articles about how much they suck.