Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a two-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in California ahead of the June 7 primary, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll of likely voters showed Clinton with 49 percent and Sanders with 47 percent.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey released last week also showed Clinton leading Sanders by two points.
The poll was conducted from May 29-31 among 557 likely Democratic primary voters interviewed by phone. The margin of error was 4.2 percent.
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My personal poll of relatives gives her 12 up —
It would be nice if stories like that mean that Clinton supporters will get motivated to go out and vote, but two points? No.
Fivethirtyeight.com averaged 20 polls and found that Hillary leads Sanders in California 55.4% to 42.7. That would seem to indicate that California voter support for Sanders hasn’t improved much at all since he started campaigning there.
In addition, Fivethirtyeight predicts a clear win for Clinton: “According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 94% chance of winning the California primary.”
– http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/
My guess 53-47 Clinton…
I’m also skeptical of this, but I’m still going to phone bank for Clinton this weekend!
Not the best source; better is HuffPost’s Pollster, which shows Clinton currently up +7.6% (including that new poll), 49.9% - 42.3%. Pollster does not do just a simple averaging, but uses a sophisticated algorithm to weight polls based on things like date, survey size, pollster reliability history, and so on.