Clinton Leads By Six Points In Florida Poll

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks during a meeting of the Alabama Democratic Conference in Hoover, Ala., Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015. (AP Photo/ Mark Almond)
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A second swing state poll released Thursday showed Democrat Hillary Clinton running ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump, this time leading him by six points among likely voters in Florida.

The Suffolk University poll of likely Florida voters showed Clinton leading Trump, 48-42, when facing head-to-head.

Clinton’s lead narrows when third party candidates are introduced. She polled at 43 percent, Trump followed at 39 percent, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polled at 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein polled at 3 percent.

Suffolk University has not surveyed Florida voters recently, but a previous Florida poll conducted by NBC/WSJ/Marist in July showed Clinton ahead of Trump by seven points.

The Florida poll follows a Franklin & Marshall poll released earlier Thursday that showed Clinton with an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted Aug. 1-3 via telephone. The survey included 500 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

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Notable Replies

  1. That was one hell of a successful convention.

  2. Political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, authors of the book The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter, are widely regarded as the top authorities on general election polling.

    And one thing their data from 1952 to 2008 clearly shows, according to Princeton election expert Sam Wang, is that head-to-head polls after the conventions are actually great predictors of who will win the race. In fact, the candidate ahead in polls two weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the popular vote in all 16 elections the political scientists studied, according to Vox’s Andrew Prokop.

    Ratf$cking by Putin or Julian Assange, not withstanding; it really is almost over before it started. It’s Hillary’s to lose.

  3.  
    Ben JacobsVerified account
    ‏@Bencjacobs
    Most remarkable crosstab of F&M poll of PA (which has Clinton up 11) has her losing voters making less than 35k to Trump by margin of 43-27
    

    Uneducated white voters, along with minorities and immigrants, the ones who would be hurt the most by a Trump presidency.

  4. Unfortunately, the media is now making it appear as if the only reason Hillary is up by so much is because of tRump’s implosion and not because of her convention, her policies, or her ideas being better than the other guy’s. It really is another case of how she gets absolutely no credit for running a successful campaign no matter what she does. The built-in narrative seems to be that she only wins if tRump self-destructs on the other side. I think that’s bullshit. Even if he was still getting his 40% old white male voters as his ceiling up until election day…he isn’t gonna win unless he can attract other types of voters, which he’s already proven incapable of doing.

    The main thing is that Dems need to show up at the polls and vote the Democratic ticket from the top on down the ballot if they really want progressive ideas and policies to continue to shape the next several years in this country.

  5. Absolutely false. She gets 79% of the credit that any male candidate would in the same position. :wink:

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