New Analysis: Trump Could Sweep Toss Up States And Still Lose The Election

Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump appears on stage during the third day of the Republican National Convention on July 20, 2016, at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH, USA.Photo by Dennis Van Tine/Sipa USA
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A new electoral map projection by Charlie Cook reveals that Donald Trump is severely behind in the Electoral College and he may not be able to catch up.

“As the race stands today, Trump could sweep the entire Toss Up column
and still come up two electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win,” said the Cook political report.

That means Trump could win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine’s Second Congressional district, and Nebraska’s First Congressional district and still lose.

Cook’s analysis finds that Trump’s original strategy to win the Rust Belt is unraveling as he lags far behind Clinton in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Cook writes that his analysis “generously” kept Georgia and Arizona “lean Republican” even though Trump is only a tiny bit ahead.

“Much of what he has said over the last month has only aggravated what would have already been a very difficult challenge,” Cook wrote.

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Notable Replies

  1. The only poll that counts is the one taken on 8 November. All the rest of this is noise that could truly affect that outcome. Complacency could be fatal here.

  2. The press usually doesn’t get around to mentioning the Electoral College until October. Guess this one is going to be such a big blowout that the horserace aspect is being discarded before labor Day.

  3. That means Trump could win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine’s Second Congressional district, and Nebraska’s First Congressional district and still lose.

    The states that he will likely lose come late September.

    Start hemming those turkeys in now. If there is a chance to get Grassley’s seat in that circle, go for it.

  4. That means Trump could win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine’s Second Congressional district, and Nebraska’s First Congressional district and still lose.

    There seems to be a typo in the original article as Cook lists Nebraska’s First Congressional district in both the Toss Up and Solidly Republican categories in the breakdown at the end, but in the article proper lists Nebraska’s Second District as the Toss Up, which seems to fit with coverage from 538.

  5. And now even acclaimed non-partisan analyst Charlie Cook has moved into the “rigged” column. Shameless!

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