The Cook Political report is out with its new projections of the electoral map for November’s presidential election, and it’s is looking better and better for Hillary Clinton.
Cook moved 11 states in Dems’ direction Thursday and redefined critical swing states Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from being toss-up to lean Democratic. They also moved two congressional districts that allocate electors. In Nebraska’s Second, Cook moved the district from solid Republican to tossup. Maine’s Second moved from solid Democratic to likely Democratic.
It’s early and all is subject to change as Clinton and Donald Trump pivot from the primaries to the general election. But, according to Cook–which analyzed polls and demographic shifts to project their electoral model–the election is moving in Democrats’ direction at the moment. Cook also notes that it may not have always gone Clinton’s way. Cook writes that Clinton “is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans.” Trump, however, has far greater deficits as he struggles to pick up support from women and Latino voters.
“With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic – enough for a majority,” the Cook Political Report team writes.
NEW 2016 electoral scorecard: https://t.co/ydEf7JVIx9 pic.twitter.com/3xHXwPZ6J4
— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) May 5, 2016
The Cook Political Report also moved New Mexico from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic and North Carolina to toss-up. Arizona, Georgia and Indiana remain in the Republican column for now, but were all moved to being less solidly Republican.
Clinton’s expanding map could also give down ballot candidates a leg up. In states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida and Arizona where there are competitive Senate races, the Clinton campaign’s ground game infrastructure could be a major support system for Democratic senate hopefuls.
