A trio of new polls Thursday in the Colorado Senate race suggests the race is going to be a tough one to nail down: They show everything from Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) pulling into a tie with GOP challenger Cory Gardner to Gardner extending his lead to seven points.
The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Udall and Gardner tied, with both polling at 48 percent. The firm’s last survey, in mid-October, had Gardner with a 3-point lead, 46 percent to 43 percent.The new poll was conducted by PPP for the League of Conservation Voters. Its mid-October poll was conducted without a sponsor.
A new Quinnipiac poll showed Gardner with a 7-point advantage, 46 percent to 39 percent. That’s up from a 5-point Gardner lead that the pollster found about a week ago.
And the new Denver Post/Survey USA poll came down in the middle: It found Gardner leading by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, the same as its last poll from the middle of the month.
The two most closely-watched constituencies in the race are women and Hispanics, both of whom Udall is believed to need to win big in order to recreate the unlikely 2010 win by Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO). The PPP poll gives Udall a 9-point lead with women, while trailing with men by 11 points. Quinnipiac had Udall winning women by 6 points and losing men by 21. SurveyUSA gave Udall a 6-point lead among women.
Among Hispanics, PPP put Udall up big, 63 percent to 27 percent. SurveyUSA had him with just a 3-point lead. Quinnipiac did not break out the Hispanic vote, but they made up 10 percent of its sample versus 13 percent of PPP’s.
Most recent polling has shown Gardner with a consistent — and sometimes sizable — lead. But a handful of Democratic-leaning polls have pegged it as tied or Udall with a small lead. According to TPM’s PollTracker average, Gardner is currently leading at 47.1 percent with Udall at 45.3 percent.
Nate Cohn in today’s NYT shows pretty convincingly that the polls tend to underestimate the Democratic vote by around 2%. effectively this race is thus a tie. Given the change from in person to mail voting this year in Colorado, no one has a clue which way this will go. If mail voting increases Democratic turnout, Udall could actually be ahead.
I have a hard time believing Udall only wins Latino vote by 3%.
The breakout on the Q poll tells you everything you need to know there. No way Udall is only winning women by 6 and hell will freeze over before he loses men by 20 points
Udall leads with women by about 20 points, and with Hispanics about 70% to 20%.
He trails with men by about 15 points.
As was noted above, Democrats are under-represented in these polls by anywhere from 2% to 4%.
And Udall has a great ground game, created by Sen. Bennet, who used it to win in Colorado, when all the polls said he would lose badly.
That is ridiculous and not to be believed at all. The polls this time are the most outrageous of any I can remember. Who the hell does Survey USA think they are fooling with that 3% of the Hispanic vote? The Hispanics may be a little angry with the President for the high deportations, and not going through with the EO until after the election, but they sure as hell know that the Cons are going to royally screw them and would not be voting for them in that high of a number. NO WAY!