A new poll released very early on Monday morning shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney poised to win big in the Illinois Republican primary on Tuesday after his victory in the Puerto Rico caucuses. The new survey of Illinois Republicans from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Romney with 45 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 30, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 12 and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). Romney seems to be benefiting from the state’s political makeup, as PPP noted in their analysis:
Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just ‘somewhat conservative.’ Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney’s also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.
We’ve tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that’s not the case in Illinois. Romney’s favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we’ve found him this year. Santorum’s at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we’ve seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.
