A sign that it’s coming down to the wire in Michigan? Public Policy Polling (D) has former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum up a point going into Michigan’s Republican primary vote on Tuesday, and a new snap poll conducted Monday night from Michigan pollsters Foster McCollum White & Associates and Baydoun Consulting shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with a mere two point lead. Both are within the margin of error, making the race a dead heat.
From the Foster McCollum White & Associates and Baydoun analysis:
Former Governor Mitt Romney had benefited from an unexpectedly poor debate performance by former Senator Rick Santorum. The shifting narrative to social issues from the economy had taken a negative impact on Santorum’s numbers. Our findings suggest however, that delivering a dual message of faith, social and economic issue items has helped Santorum rebuild his advantage in the Southwestern region of the state and with Evangelical voters.
Foster McCollum White & Associates and Baydoun found Santorum to be lead amongst evangelical christians, voters in the six major Republican counties (Kent, Jackson, Ottawa, Lapeer, Livingston, Eaton and Berrien), men, and very conservative voters. However, Romney maintained his small lead on his strength with moderate Republicans, Catholic voters, and non-evangelical christians, the firm wrote.
But despite Santorum’s major movement in the last days, PPP also pointed to early voting totals, which could still deliver the state for Romney.
18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum’s likely to win election day voters, but he”s going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote.
Update, 8:46 a.m., 2/28/2012: Another snap poll from Michigan pollster Mitchell Research conducted on Monday shows the race just as close, Romney with 37 and Santorum with 36. “The lead changed again in a race that appears to be very, very close. Romney leads by just 1.4% on the eve of the election. The big change in tonight’s polling seems to be an increase in support among women voters where Romney now leads by 5%. Depending on the turnout, the race could go either way,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said in a release.
The TPM Poll Average shows a photo finish today.
